reraise-bluffing a LAG - fine or spew?

[Rainclouds]

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $64.05
<font color="black">Hero (BB): $197.00</font>
UTG: $200.00
CO: $206.90
BTN: $201.13

<font color="black">Reads: </font><font color="blue">Villain is a strong 31/23/4 LAG</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, CO calls $2.00, BTN calls $2.00, SB calls $1.00, <font color="red">Hero raises to $10.00</font>, CO folds, BTN calls $8.00, SB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($24) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $15.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises to $30.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $60.00</font>, BTN calls $30.00

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($144) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">BTN bets all-in for $131.13</font>, Hero folds

Pot Size: $275.13

My thoughts:

1. He limp-called preflop, which I see as a small pocket pair calling for set odds, maybe a small SC.
2. On the flop, he minraises me. He probably thinks I'm cbetting here (in which he is correct), but he can't have a good hand himself.
3. Therefore, a reraise should make him lay down small PPs (and air, of course). I'm representing TT+ after all.
4. But he calls my 3bet! I am lost and decide to just give it up with a check/fold.

Is my line of thinking correct? +EV or -EV?

[ofishstix]

1) yeti theorem - pfr 3bets on paired board=bluff
2) whyd you 3bet so tiny
3) when he calls flop, he usually has a 2 if he's decent

[EddieRooo]

miniraise bluffing = -ev

I think you should have raised more preflop also.

[Worm75]

[ QUOTE ]
1) yeti theorem - pfr 3bets on paired board=bluff
2) whyd you 3bet so tiny
3) when he calls flop, he usually has a 2 if he's decent

[/ QUOTE ]

what hands do you honestly see this villain calling with PF that have a 2?????

I think that yeti applies, especially with the horrible 3-bet here, but I think villain has a hand like 33-88,9T/j10 way more often and simply made a good read on a crappy steal.

And WTF????? are we doing checking the turn when we 3-bet this flop, you are saying to the lag please treat me like your [censored].

[Rainclouds]

Thanks for the responses so far.

I didn't know of the yeti theorem before, but I looked it up and I learned something today!
I guess my line was worse than I thought it was.

[ QUOTE ]
2) whyd you 3bet so tiny

[/ QUOTE ]
If villain was bluffing, I expected a small raise to have the same effect as a large raise. A minraise to $45 would be too suspicious of course. $60 seemed fine to me. Am I wrong?

[ QUOTE ]
And WTF????? are we doing checking the turn when we 3-bet this flop, you are saying to the lag please treat me like your [censored].

[/ QUOTE ]
As I said, I was lost. I expected to take it down on the flop. I'm not going to bet or shove here, because he probably puts me on exactly what I have, and call me with his pair. On the flop, I did not expect him to read me that well. I felt check-folding was my only option left.

Either way, I now realize I should not have 3-bet on the flop

[joeblack]

[ QUOTE ]
And WTF????? are we doing checking the turn when we 3-bet this flop, you are saying to the lag please treat me like your [censored].

[/ QUOTE ]
QFT

Can someone go more into the Yeti theorem? If you 3bet PF and bet a paired flop its a bluff or is the villian going to bluff raise you oftern? More detail would be appreciated.

-JB

[Rainclouds]

I found this one:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...rue#Post9622773