foxwoods 1/2 NL monster draw 200BB deep, do i have fold equity here?

elliot · #1 06-11-2007, 09:40 PM

foxwoods, villian joined game around half an hour ago and doubled up, no reads beyond being a young guy that "looks" like a competent player (and accordingly, able to fold a hand), my image is semi-lag but i dont think he knows this as i do not recognize him.

hero has about $400, villian covers.

UTG+1 limps, villian makes standard preflop raise to $15 from MP2, folded to hero on button, hero calls with T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] , limper folds.

heads up to flop.

flop: ($35 in pot)

T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

villian bets $40, hero calls.

Turn: ($115 in pot)

T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

villian bets $100, hero instashoves for an additional $250 on top.

all feedback is appreciated, thanks.

luckybacon · #2 06-11-2007, 09:42 PM

i probably just pot the flop and get it in there. doesnt look like villain is going away. you have tons of outs and he might be able to fold aa/kk here.

Nevermind this is live

elliot · #3 06-11-2007, 09:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i probably just pot the flop and get it in there. doesnt look like villain is going away. you have tons of outs and he might be able to fold aa/kk here.

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even if his range is exactly AA and KK, i'm "only" a 59/41 dog with one card to come.

.KeviN. · #4 06-11-2007, 10:17 PM

hahaha the avatar. Raise and try to get it in on the flop. Even thou you don't really have too much FE id push on the turn also.

Edit: Folding anywhere is teeeeeeerrrrrrible

cs3 · #5 06-11-2007, 10:19 PM

make it 120 on flop, call a push
push turn if he jsut calls flop

elliot · #6 06-12-2007, 05:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
make it 120 on flop, call a push
push turn if he jsut calls flop

[/ QUOTE ]

arent i putting myself in a spot where he is going to shove into me on the turn himself if i do this?

i WANT to have a chance that he folds a better hand, and i REALLY dont see how raising the flop accomplishes this.

bilbo-san · #7 06-12-2007, 05:40 AM

[ QUOTE ]
hahaha the avatar. Raise and try to get it in on the flop. Even thou you don't really have too much FE id push on the turn also.

Edit: Folding anywhere is teeeeeeerrrrrrible

[/ QUOTE ]

So, you realise that putting in 200bbs as a dog is a bad thing, right?

I mean, if you don't have FE you clearly should not be playing this hand like the nuts.

Wolfram · #8 06-12-2007, 06:41 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
make it 120 on flop, call a push
push turn if he jsut calls flop

[/ QUOTE ]

arent i putting myself in a spot where he is going to shove into me on the turn himself if i do this?

i WANT to have a chance that he folds a better hand, and i REALLY dont see how raising the flop accomplishes this.

[/ QUOTE ]
You might have FE on the flop, but you certainly don't on the turn after he bets the pot, unless he has air, and then you want him to stay in the pot.

Also, if you raise the flop and he pushes, calling will be correct because you're a favorite to win (unless he has a set obviously).

Making a turn-push that's going to be called by almost any hand that beats you, where you are certain to be a dog, is not correct. If you're "only" a 41/59 dog, then calling his bet and then getting it in on the river when you hit is certainly the better play.

cs3 · #9 06-12-2007, 06:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
make it 120 on flop, call a push
push turn if he jsut calls flop

[/ QUOTE ]

arent i putting myself in a spot where he is going to shove into me on the turn himself if i do this?

i WANT to have a chance that he folds a better hand, and i REALLY dont see how raising the flop accomplishes this.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont think he open shoves the turn that often if you raise the flop and he just calls. if he bets less than all in on the turn then just call.
i think you would have correct odds to call if he did open push tho.

as played just call the turn. hes not folding now.

Georgia Avenue · #10 06-12-2007, 11:22 AM

I played this exact same hand except with a worse draw vs AA last weekend at the trop. He was a pretty good player, so he didnt instacall, but he did call.

You should raise the flop because you are ahead, nobody ever folds overpairs live ever. Rando live players stack with AQ here also, another reason to pot flop.