Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest

[TomG]

Bodog Prop.

2007 Nathan's Famous 4th of July Hot Dog Eating Contest: How many hot dogs will the winner eat? Kobayashi and Chestnut must start the competition for action. No Parlays. Max $100

Over 57 (-125)
Under 57 (-105)

I like the under. Joey Chestnut made big news by recently breaking the world record of 59.5 hot dogs in 12 minutes. I don't know much about competitive eating, but it seems like the top scores are pretty random. Chestnut broke the world record by over over 5 hot dogs! Up until last month, the world record stood at 53.5 hot dogs. Never before has anyone in Nathan's eaten more than 57.0 hot dogs.

Past Nathan's Results (12 minute contest)...

2002 50.5 hot dogs (Kobayashi) (new world record)
2003 44.5 hot dogs (Kobayashi)
2004 53.5 hot dogs (Kobayashi) (new world record)
2005 49.0 hot dogs (Kobayashi)
2006 53.75 hot dogs (Kobayashi), 52 (Chestnut)

The recent press on Chestnut is pushing this line too high IMO. Look for results to revert to the mean. I like the under 57.0 (-105).

Even better than Bodog, VIP.com has this set at O/U 60.0 hot dogs at (-115) on both sides. Huge value on the under IMO. 60.0 would be a new world record. I maxed this one out at $500. No way is the world record broken greater than 53.5% of the time.

[TomG]

Also maxed out the Under 112.5 (+130) at VIP for the combined total of Kobayashi and Chestnut. I would have laid odds on this. +130 this is a great price on a really soft line IMO.

[paperchamp]

You also have to consider that in many of those years Kobayashi was way ahead of the field. Most the time he led by as many as 10-15 dogs in the last 2 minutes. Now that he has some competition it will definitely juice the future totals. However, I still see some pretty good value in the under.

[paperchamp]

Also, TK to win is +101 at Pinny. I think that taking him at even money or better is a steal.

[TomG]

I agree, +101 is a great price on Kobayashi.

Also, right now you can even arb the O/U on Pinny of Under 57.0 (+128) against Bodog, although I still like the pure value in the Under.

[CieloAzor]

I'm sort of reluctantly on the under. But considering last year's results and what's happened since, I definitely think Chestnut should be the favorite now. All the squares are on Kobayashi, obv. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Anyway, I'm on under, but nothing else.

[xenthebrain]

Well, that one sucked [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[TomG]

Yeah that was expensive... I guess the lesson to be learned is that historical results aren't very relevant for competitive eating at this time. The sport is still developing. When world records keep getting shattered, looking towards the past for insight into the future isn't very helpful.

[TheOffice]

I somehow can't understand how both contestants improved their performance by an entire 20%+ over the course of one year. Kobayashi's numbers are even statistically solid to some extent.

Did they use smaller hot dogs this year, or any competitive eating expert out there who can explain this highly improved performance?

[Limpfold]

Maybe they didn't have breakfast [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]