NL25: Flopped set on rapidly deteriorating board

[Emperor Norton]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($21.95)
UTG ($34.70)
MP ($25)
CO ($15.45)
Button ($41.15)
Hero ($24.75)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises to $2.75</font>, UTG folds, Hero calls $1.25.

Flop: ($5.75) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks.

Turn: ($5.75) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $1.5</font>, Hero calls $1.50.

River: ($8.75) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">BB bets $4.5</font>, Hero folds.

Ugh. I checked the flop because I figured I'd be getting all-in against JJ+ no matter what, so I wanted to snap off a c-bet from AK. Villain foils my evil plans by checking, and the turn card puts both AK and QQ in the lead. Now I'm only ahead of a small part of his range, so I check/call, hoping to pair the board, or get to showdown cheaply. The river is even worse, so I check/fold. Thoughts?

Edit: Villain is unknown. I don't know what he's three-betting preflop, but I'm assuming he's on a fairly tight range without any evidence to the contrary.

[members_only]

at first sight this looks pretty weak to me. i can't really see myself not leading or check-raising (probably the former) on the turn. i agree you're beating nothing on the river though.

something more analytical to follow i hope (ie from me)

[RollTide77]

You gave away free cards. You have to try to end it if you hit. He could have AA, KK, QQ, AK and maybe even AQs if your table is loose and on the flop you are ahead of all of those. I'm leading the flop and RR the turn so that he knows I'm serious. If he calls all that then I c/f the river.

[edit]Scratch that. I meant I'm leading the turn too. As played I'm c/r that turn bet.

[orig!naL]

This is exactly why you don't slow play sets. First you want to disguise and second you want to prevent draws. As played this river bet looks like it wants a call. I'm folding

[Emperor Norton]

With no flush draw on the board, giving away free cards wasn't really a concern. Unless I was already beaten by JJ, villain was drawing to at most four outs if he checked behind on the flop. The turn card just happened to be the worst card that could possibly fall. If the turn comes an ace or king I lead and hope to get all-in, but the queen falling means that I was only ahead of aces and kings, which only really constitutes about a third of an unknown's preflop three-betting range.

[members_only]

ok i think we can agree that flop and river are fine, so it's the turn that is the real issue. I guess if his range is AA-JJ and AK you aren't looking very good but still ok (someone stove it?) But I think you could add AQ and some % random [censored] in there as well. His min RR pre-flop and subsequent betting of the hand is so fishy it just makes me confused about what his range is.

idk, i'm just not that scared about our hand on the turn. maybe you had a 'feeling'?

edit: just to say, i posted this before reading what you just wrote

edit again: and what everyone else just wrote. which i think is mostly off the point

[members_only]

im also not convinced his range includes QQ and JJ

[orange]

c/r the turn or lead it.

[Emperor Norton]

[ QUOTE ]
im also not convinced his range includes QQ and JJ

[/ QUOTE ]

You may be right about his range not including QQ, but I think it's entirely in character for a lot of players to check behind on the flop with top set.

Board: 7c Ts Jh Qs
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.727% 47.73% 00.00% 714 0.00 { TdTh }
Hand 1: 52.273% 52.27% 00.00% 782 0.00 { KK+, JJ, AQs+, AKo }


I added AQs and removed QQ to balance it out a bit. Having done that, it becomes surprisingly close. Against this range a bet/three-bet all-in becomes feasible, although I have to cross my fingers and hope that villain will stack off with AQ here.

My thinking on the turn was this: against an average three-betting range, I'm usually behind (although my range might have been a bit skewed prior to this post), but I have no idea where I stand against what villain actually holds. If he holds JJ I should fold; if he holds AK I should try to keep the pot medium-sized on the turn so that I can get it in on a paired river; if he holds AA/KK I should bet/three-bet. But if I bet/three-bet all of the time I'm bleeding money, if I fold all of the time I'm bleeding money, and if I bet/call/fold unimproved on the river, I'm bleeding money. It's a crappy situation. Ultimately, I decided that going for pot control was the safest route.

[Emperor Norton]

But I wanna know whyyyyy. And please read my above post for my reasoning on the hand. If it's incorrect it would be a great help to see it critiqued.