Set; flush hits river

youthies · #1 06-10-2007, 08:13 AM

Villain is 48/23/1.5 over 50 hands. Should I call this?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($98.05)
Button ($40.75)
SB ($22.05)
Hero ($50)
UTG ($23.25)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($2) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, UTG calls $2, MP calls $2, SB folds.

Turn: ($8) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $7.5, UTG folds, MP calls $7.50.

River: ($23) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $13, MP raises to $88.05, Hero

bluffbetter · #2 06-10-2007, 08:41 AM

I think it's a close decision but I call because I think I'm right in saying you only have to be ahead 26% of the time here to break even on the $27 river call, I think this could well be AT, although he could have KT clubs or 89 for the straight but I think he would have raised the turn with 89 and I think he would also play this way with QT clubs and JT clubs because of his loose stats. And who knows he may think he's a bluffing expert after missing with J9 spades (he is loose).

TIGERsrm · #3 06-10-2007, 08:48 AM

I call, unlikely 89 would wait for river to raise, certainly not a higher set, backdoor flush is just real bad luck but you can't fold giving a guy credit for runner runner. I think you see AT or spades enough here to make it a call. In fact who knows what a 48/23 might flip over.

Gustav · #4 06-10-2007, 08:58 AM

I assume you called and he had the flush, since youre suddenly worried about a pretty weird backdoor flush on a board like this. 89 is probably the most likely hand that beats you. This is an easy call though, that ace is a huge bingo card for you.

Nick C · #5 06-10-2007, 09:16 AM

You're getting about 3:1, so I think this is a pretty easy call, but I'm not happy to be facing this push at all. This is one of those spots where a backdoor flush is more likely than usual, as top pair (TcXc) is calling the flop along with some middle pairs (9c7c, 8c7c) and probably some gutshots (8cXc, 7cXc). Also, I've been finding myself writing notes like "slowplayed flopped set to river" or "slowplayed flopped straight to river" a lot recently, so I don't want to discount 98 all that much, if at all.

Up against that, we have the AT and 66 and desperation river bluff-raise possibilities, with maybe a little A7/A6 thrown in if Villain is stubborn enough. This isn't really a massive pool of hands since Villain will usually not push with, say, XsXs and 8h7c and in fact will have sometimes dumped those hands on the turn.

So I'm thinking you're not even a favorite anymore once you face this river raise (although against this Villain, who knows?), but then again, the pot is far from empty.