100NL good spot to bluff a 14/10 villain?

[_Apollo_]

Villain is 14/10/4 over 500 hands

No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 8 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $229.93
BB: $9.10
UTG: $99.45
UTG+1: $25.05
MP1: $101.80
MP2: $112.35
CO: $29.04
<font color="black">Hero (BTN): $118.20</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (8 Players)
3 folds, <font color="red">MP2 raises to $4.00</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $4.00, 2 folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($9.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP2 bets $6.00</font>, Hero calls $6.00

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($21.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP2 checks, Hero checks

<font color="black">River:</font> ($21.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
MP2 checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $20.00</font>

1.Call on the button, fold when I'm SB with JTo?
(I'm having trouble adjusting bc I played some shorthanded this week)

2.I call on the flop because he looked like the type that likes to fold when the board gets scary.
So I figured there were a lot of good cards for me on turn and called. Does anyone think this is a good spot to do so, and what about my riverbet?

[RipperTEQ]

If you make this play on Mr. McNitty, I would bet the turn if you're going to bluff, because your bluff has more weight, in that he knows he will probably have to call a larger river bet. The hammer of future bets.

He is checking the turn to you for pot control, because it looks like he is playing a pair and wants to see this showdown for cheap (as evidenced by his river check).

[SABR42]

Fold pf.

Flop call is ok I think because you have huge implied odds vs AA/KK/QQ/AK/AQ if you hit a king.

I'd just check the river.

[mack848]

I fold preflop to this Villain.

On the river, he usually has a pair and usually won't fold. He would probably fold JJ, but that hand is less likely with you holding JT. I see no value in a bet. If he has a hand you beat, he won't call. If he has a hand ahead of you, he calls almost all of them.

Now, if he has a low WTSD and you believe he can fold to real pressure, then a river overbet might be worth a bash.

[Johnes Benjamin]

definitely fold SB, button call sometimes is ok.
I would prefer bluffing the turn, too easy for him to call and showdown now.

[donkmagic]

you probably have the best hand here &gt; 50% of the time.

[Phresh]

Using someone's preflop stats to determine whether or not they can be bluffed is pretty irresponsible. There are very good 14/10s in poker and very bad 14/10s. I'd be more prone to bluff players based on their postflop hand reading skills and willingness to fold.

Also, the main thing you CAN tell from someone's 14/10 stats is that they have a relatively selective PFR range. Calling their PFR with JTo, even on Button, is a leak, IMO. I'd let it go preflop.


[ QUOTE ]
I call on the flop because he looked like the type that likes to fold when the board gets scary.

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, judging someone's willingness to fold "when the board gets scary" based on preflop stats is not a very good reason to get involved in pots with them. There are many stubborn, bad players with tight stats that you can't make fold.

Your river bet seems alright, but I dislike how, and why, you got to the river. Personally, I'd bet the turn almost always. You have a ton of fold equity as almost all Villains will double barrel on this board with a strong hand. You also have outs if called and can sometimes rep the flush.

[King Spew]

[ QUOTE ]
Personally, I'd bet the turn almost always. You have a ton of fold equity as almost all Villains will double barrel on this board with a strong hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This hand shouldn't go to the river. Villain will fold 88 on the turn.

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Personally, I'd bet the turn almost always. You have a ton of fold equity as almost all Villains will double barrel on this board with a strong hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This hand shouldn't go to the river. Villain will fold 88 on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
We already beat 88 on the turn. Folding out a 2-outer shouldn't be huge concern there.

[_Apollo_]

thanks for the response Phresh, his stats were not the only reason because I saw him folding a lot on draw heavy boards when he seemed to have a reasonable hand, but it was definitly a big factor and a mistake it seems.

was not sure about the river, but I just don't see him calling after he checked turn and river.
And didn't want to run into some weird hands bc I might misjudged his preflop hands. Betting seemed safe enough.
not fully convinced about that one looking back but got a little carried away about repping a flush (like I planned on)

This was obv. not my strongest hand but I'm glad I got some usefull preflop advise. thx for responses so far