Credible bluff?

jumbojacks · #1 06-08-2007, 07:35 PM

I usually never bluff unless I feel I can take away the pot easily. I've been playing tighter than usual to exploit this crazy LAG I have position on who shoves a ton without adjusting. I have showed down in small pots some random hands in some random positions, but in bigger pots I've always had the goods. This is sort of early in the session.

Villain is 17/15/1.5 over 200 hands, but he's about a 30/23 on the button and attacks very aggressively with position, but definitely capable of laying down one pair type hands as he's somewhat of a thinking player and on the tight side.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (4 handed) internettexasholdem.com

SB ($109.35)
BB ($123)
Hero ($254.90)
Button ($136.80)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with X X.
Hero raises to $4, 2 folds, BB raises to $10, Hero calls $6.

This is kind of weird as I've never really seen him 3bet and such a small amount makes it fishy. If he had a big hand he would likely have bumped it up more.

Flop: ($20.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($20.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $12, Hero raises to $24, BB calls $12.

I'm pretty sure he has a weak J here by his flop/turn line on this board and some chance he has a 9 here.

River: ($68.50) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $35...

If timing tells mean anything to him I somewhat quickly min-raised the turn and thought for like a 2 or 3 seconds before I fired the river. Min-raise is non-standard for me on the turn, but I felt it would be the most convincing to him at the moment.

Guizones · #2 06-08-2007, 07:43 PM

Good bet... It seems you can't win this pot without betting here, but I would bet more I think... to much odds for him (3-1)...I would bet around $50

ofishstix · #3 06-08-2007, 07:59 PM

if i bet i make it 42, but i dont think he ever folds

ASC-what · #4 06-08-2007, 08:31 PM

bet like 50

T3rminator4 · #5 06-08-2007, 08:38 PM

$50 exactly