sick squeezeplay or dumb luck

[mr pink]

20/40 5-handed

I saw this hand at the table but didn't play it.

I fold utg, Co folds, button (LAG/TAG) raises w/A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], LP BAD sb calls w/ 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] , sb (Also a solid TAG) calls w/???

flop is 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

sb checks, bb checks, button bets, sb check/raises, bb cold calls, sb calls.

turn is the 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

sb checks, bb checks, button checks.

river is the 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

sb bets out, bb calls, button RAISES, sb calls, bb folds...

I dunno if the button got lucky here or if it was a great play.

based on the turn action, it's pretty obvious that nobody has an 8. so when the river straight gets there it most likely is a 3 way chop. the sb bets out which could either the flush or is playing the board and hoping for someone to fold. the bb just cold calls bet going for the overcall (thinking it's a chop and the sb is just betting cause he's dumb)

so now the button is looking at either:

- call and hope for a chop (at best) unless the sb has a flush in which case he'd lose 1 bb anyway.

- raise and hope you and the sb are chopping and put the bb in a really tough spot when the sb overcalls. he's also be representing the flush so getting 3bet is unlikely unless you're already beat anyway... so he's investing 1 more bb in an attempt to steal 1/6 of the pot away from the bb.

I think this hinges a lot on how often you think the bb will fold w/ regard to how large the pot is as 1/6th of a 8 bb pot is only 1.3 bbs. I suck at math but I thought this might be interesting.