Top pair ace kicker scare card... what to do?

[raytownloc]

Party Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25/$0.5
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, <font color="#cc3333">Hero raises</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls, MP3 calls.

Flop: 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9.4SB, 4 players)
UTG checks, MP1 checks, MP3 checks, <font color="#cc3333">Hero bets</font>, 2 folds, MP3 calls.

Turn: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (5.7BB, 2 players)
MP3 checks, <font color="#cc3333">Hero bets</font>, MP3 calls.

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (7.7BB, 2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero checks.

Results:
Final pot: 7.7BB

[Muckit]

Value bet the river

[johnc]

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Value bet the river

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[MrWookie]

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Value bet the river

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Easiest bet evar. Soon you will recognize it as such if you hang out here long enough.

[SoftcoreRevolt]

That isn't a very scary river.

[Magellan]

Don't check behind on the river here, bet for value. If MP3 has made the flush and is going for a c/r, good for him. More often than not YHIG here and you should be extracting another bet.

Other than the river, well played.

[raytownloc]

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Don't check behind on the river here, bet for value. If MP3 has made the flush and is going for a c/r, good for him. More often than not YHIG here and you should be extracting another bet.

Other than the river, well played.

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Thanks for being nice about it. I knew I misplayed it, but wanted to make sure. Villain turned over pocket nines.

[CaucasianAsian29]

A rule of thumb i usually use, is if you are 55% sure that you have the best hand on the river, then bet it, I would think there was at least a 55% chance, so I would have bet

[raytownloc]

its just that he played like someone on a draw, didnt he? I mean the last card could have completed a flush or a straight, but I see what your saying...

[TheMainEvent]

The reason people are saying you shouldn't be afraid of the river is that although the river completed several draws none of them are likely. Villian almost certainly didn't play AK, K9, or 89 this way, and he would have to have Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]x[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] to continue from the flop with only one diamond. QJ is a possibility but you're very likely to still be ahead. Note that even if the river did complete a likely draw you should usually still bet when checked to, especially when villian has been passive throughout the hand like this