$109 turbo: Shortstack bubble strategy

xPeru · #1 06-07-2007, 09:20 PM

This hand occurred last night and I keep thinking about it, so I would appreciate your views:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t1600 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

UTG (t1170)
UTG+1 (t9445)
MP1 (t2110)
MP2 (t17264)
Hero (t4056)
Button (t6930)
SB (t14920)
BB (t4745)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
4 folds, Hero raises to t3981, 2 folds, BB calls t2381.

Flop: (t6887) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)

Turn: (t6887) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: (t6887) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: t6887

Results in white below: 
BB has Ks 5c (one pair, fives).
Hero has 4s 4c (one pair, fours).
Outcome: BB wins t6887. 

Note this was a turbo, BB was Gboro780, not a donk. 31 players left, 27 get paid (1st level $177). Blinds will go up before they reach me again.

We're on the bubble, if I fold I think I'm 50/50 that 4 players will go out before the blinds hit me again. I know Gboro will call very light, as will the big stack immediately to my right. My problem is working out the $EV for this situation. Shoving here gives me a chance of making the $177 and provides opportunities for more $. But folding may well guarantee the $177. What range should I shove here? My feeling is that 44 is a shove and I'm being too nitty in questioning my play, but I've bubbled several recently shoving light on the bubble, and it's getting irritating. At lower buy-ins I'm shoving 44 without thought, but at this level, am I wrong?

ianisakson · #2 06-07-2007, 09:31 PM

this is a shove, can you really picture yourself folding here? The key to these tourneys is winnning hands like this when the blinds refuse to fold K5.

betgo · #3 06-07-2007, 09:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
this is a shove, can you really picture yourself folding here? The key to these tourneys is playing aggressively so you have enough chips to make the BB fold K5.

[/ QUOTE ]
fyp

xPeru · #4 06-07-2007, 09:44 PM

No I can't picture myself folding this ... but is it +$EV? What range is? What is not?

xPeru · #5 06-07-2007, 09:52 PM

Aggression wasn't my problem ... earlier:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

SB (t7315)
BB (t8470)
UTG (t3230)
MP1 (t9447)
Hero (t4986)
CO (t19523)
Button (t17829)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].

Flop: (t350) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7 players)

Turn: (t350) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7 players)

River: (t350) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7 players)

Final Pot: t350

Results in white below: 
SB doesn't show.
BB doesn't show.
UTG doesn't show.
MP1 doesn't show.
Hero has 8h Ah (flush, ace high).
CO has Ac Ad (two pair, aces and tens).
Button doesn't show.
Outcome: Hero wins t350. 

A well deserved beat took me down to shortstack ... AK<AJ

curtains · #6 06-07-2007, 09:52 PM

Cant fold as sad as it may be to bubble.

xPeru · #7 06-07-2007, 09:55 PM

converter ruined the stacks there, obv I doubled up v CO

Cornell Fiji · #8 06-07-2007, 09:57 PM

folding is bad.

play to win

curtains · #9 06-07-2007, 09:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
folding is bad.

play to win

[/ QUOTE ]

ehh Im sure there are spots where it's clearly correct to go for making the money, but this isn't one of them IMO.

betgo · #10 06-07-2007, 10:00 PM

I mean you need to be pushing a lot with short stacks compared to blinds near the bubble. You don't want to get that short stacked.