16$. Bubble calling range here?

[ipushufold]

Let's say CO is a normal grinder at the 16s, and a slightly winning player.

BB in this hand is a tight player, who seem to know what he is doing.

CO: 8640
Button: 3635
Hero: 680
BB: 545

Blinds: 200/400 A25.

CO pushes all in.
Button folds.
Hero's range here is?

[traedamatic]

AJs better and TT better. the possibility that the BB calls quite high.

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

wow, tough spot. This is pure ICM and I don't have it at work. I have also been struggling w/ calling ranges.

BB has to call w/ ATC if you fold b/c his odds are huge (assuming he has any understanding of poker, which you say he does).

If big stack has not been bullying I would fold everything but AQ+, TT+.

Assuming big stack has been bullying he is pushing a huge range, probably ATC, so I'm guessing you can call huge 22+, A+, K+, Q+, J7+, J4s+, T9+, T7s+

But maybe you have to just fold and hope BB calls and goes busto

Edit: I guess you have to fold... I am just running so bad I don't know anymore... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[jesse8888]

The bb has 145 chips after posting, so he's calling with any two. CO knew that and letting you and the BB flip for third would have been a fine result for him, so he actually probably has something pretty decent.

I think you need to be at least as tight as traedamatic says, and perhaps even a bit tighter. I really wouldn't be happy about my hand until I had QQ+ or AK, but with only 680 chips, you probably could call with a few more hands.

My logic for the excessive tightness is that I think CO is substantially stronger than any two cards and thus is a strong favorite to end the bubble right here against the BB.

[jesse8888]

A little ICM chugging gets me roughly this:

If you fold and the BB wins the hand, your chips are worth $9.80

If you fold and the BB loses the hand, your chips are worth $29.60

If you call and win the hand, your chips are worth ~$36

The reason this is really tricky is that if you call and lose the hand, you could still get paid 3rd place money, so long as the big stack knocks you both out. Of course if you call, the BB might muck his hand in a last ditch effort to make third...

Very tricky problem indeed.

[The Bubbler]

With BB pot committed and good chance to bubble here, I would stick to a very narrow range, certainly not more than the AJs/TT suggested by traedematic. Then again, I'm a noob. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Dr_Jeckyl_00]

Ok, I am home and ran it. 1st instinct was right. It is only a fold if villain is pushing top 5% (which is way too tight for a big stack), otherwise it is a huge call. If he is pushing top 10% you call w/ 60%, if he is pushing ATC you call w/ 93% of hands.

You have 1/2 blind if you fold so you're getting great odds to call.

[Kevin8423]

[ QUOTE ]
The bb has 145 chips after posting, so he's calling with any two. CO knew that and letting you and the BB flip for third would have been a fine result for him, so he actually probably has something pretty decent.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong, CO will still be very wide wanting the chips for himself and wanting to end the bubble this hand. I call fairly tight here because folding could allow the BB to fold and see if you get knocked out.

[jesse8888]

You really think so? CO has almost 9000 chips. I'm not saying he's pushing only premium hands, just that he probably at least has an ace or a decent king or something.

Kevin, I don't understand your last sentence at all. Is there a typo in it? You seem to say you would not call much because folding is bad, which doesn't make sense. Do you mean you'd call a good bit because folding could allow the bb to fold and see if you bust out?

Also, I disagree that the BB can possibly fold this hand. If he does, he's all in blind next hand for 145 chips, so unless you decide to call, he's got to win a showdown before you do.

[jesse8888]

Oh I think I get it...you meant to say "because calling could allow", not "because folding could allow", right? Now that I completely agree with. The BB can't fold this hand if you fold, and if I were him I'd almost certainly fold if you call.