NL200 - QQ multiway - std fold?

[silenced]

Villain is TakeUrCheese - one of the few ftp regs that i think is legit at this level, i have him running at 19/16/3

Given villain is a thinking player, knowing that I play at around 18/14/4, i'm thinking he has to be making this bet with an overpair beat - just wanting to make sure my thinking is right...Pretty Std fold?

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $261.80
BB: $211.75
UTG: $436.40
<font color="black">Hero (MP): $445.60</font>
CO: $155.40
BTN: $57.45

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7.00</font>, CO calls $7.00, BTN folds, SB calls $6.00, BB calls $5.00

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($28) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $22.00</font>, CO folds, SB calls $22.00, BB folds

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($72) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $40.00</font>, Hero folds

[keikiwai]

this looks v. suspicious, surely he realize you fold v. often, so callinig may be the best play.... this would be an odd v. bet w/ a king... and what kings get to the turn?

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this looks v. suspicious, surely he realize you fold v. often, so callinig may be the best play.... this would be an odd v. bet w/ a king... and what kings get to the turn?

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Yeah, to be honest im not worried about a king here at all....hes not going to float me with AK (or any weaker K) in this spot ever. It just looks a lot like a set to me....maybe a call and fold to river shove?

[JackAll]

It doesn't look like a set or 2pr - those hands will often c/r the turn. It just look way too wierd to lead here because he knows that we won't raise with an overpair (if he has 2pr/set) and this just keeps the turn bet not too big.

This looks a lot like 9Xss/8Xss going for a cheap turn. If it's 89ss then we are screwed obv. Otherwise I would raise here big to make sure he has to commit his whole stack in before the next card comes out. If he has 9Xss/8Xss, then he will prob call a push thinking he has lots of outs vs an overpair and has a made hand vs a flush draw. The more I think about it, the more I like a push to look like a flush draw. Call me crazy if you like though ....

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It doesn't look like a set or 2pr - those hands will often c/r the turn. It just look way too wierd to lead here because he knows that we won't raise with an overpair (if he has 2pr/set) and this just keeps the turn bet not too big.

This looks a lot like 9Xss/8Xss going for a cheap turn. If it's 89ss then we are screwed obv. Otherwise I would raise here big to make sure he has to commit his whole stack in before the next card comes out. If he has 9Xss/8Xss, then he will prob call a push thinking he has lots of outs vs an overpair and has a made hand vs a flush draw. The more I think about it, the more I like a push to look like a flush draw. Call me crazy if you like though ....

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How does this not look like a set or 2pr? If its not, it has to be a massive draw like TsJs in which he has a ton of outs. I just htink im either WB/BA (and usually WB)

[Hosehound25]

Good fold.

[iggymcfly]

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this looks v. suspicious, surely he realize you fold v. often, so callinig may be the best play.... this would be an odd v. bet w/ a king... and what kings get to the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, to be honest im not worried about a king here at all....hes not going to float me with AK (or any weaker K) in this spot ever. It just looks a lot like a set to me....maybe a call and fold to river shove?

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I like this line a lot better. The size of the lead on the "scary" turn that doesn't really connect with any of his hands looks really suspicious to me. What's he hoping to get a call from for $40 here? And with a set, I think a lead or C/R would be more likely on that flop than a C/C would.

If you call the turn, it's going to be pretty hard for him to fire another shell without a real hand, so I think calling the turn and folding do a decent-sized river bet is the best play here.

[JackAll]

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How does this not look like a set or 2pr? If its not, it has to be a massive draw like TsJs in which he has a ton of outs. I just htink im either WB/BA (and usually WB)

[/ QUOTE ]

Why on earth would he lead with a set/2pr? Why not c/r? His line makes no sense for a set - especially when he bets so small and we are unlikely to raise it. Why does he want pot control also??

With only one card to come, we are a 70% fav against T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[Ekos]

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It doesn't look like a set or 2pr - those hands will often c/r the turn. It just look way too wierd to lead here because he knows that we won't raise with an overpair (if he has 2pr/set) and this just keeps the turn bet not too big.

This looks a lot like 9Xss/8Xss going for a cheap turn. If it's 89ss then we are screwed obv. Otherwise I would raise here big to make sure he has to commit his whole stack in before the next card comes out. If he has 9Xss/8Xss, then he will prob call a push thinking he has lots of outs vs an overpair and has a made hand vs a flush draw. The more I think about it, the more I like a push to look like a flush draw. Call me crazy if you like though ....

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How does this not look like a set or 2pr? If its not, it has to be a massive draw like TsJs in which he has a ton of outs. I just htink im either WB/BA (and usually WB)

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Villain should expect Hero to fire another bullet on the turn (K is very unlikely to hit Villain's range), so Villain should CR a strong made hand here.

I agree with JackAll that this looks like a pair+fd/sd type hand rather than a strong made hand.

[Anycall]

if the villain took this line with hands that have us crushed, it is a strange line to say the least.

to me this looks like some type of flop OESD(JT or 67) that picked up additional flush outs on turn. unless he is thinking along the line of "he prob thinks i wouldn't play my sets this way, so i will donk out and get paid by overpair" i have a hard time imagining that this is 2p+ type hands.