Sickest value extraction hand yet - Quads 200bb deep with action

[ama0330]

Villain is 12/7/2 over 100 hands.

Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $121.75
BB: $50.70
<font color="black">Hero (UTG): $130.65</font>
MP: $49.25
CO: $106.90
BTN: $46.75

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K (6 Players)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, MP folds, CO calls $2.00, 3 folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($4.75) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.00</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $11.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $40.00</font>, CO calls $29.00

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($84.75) K (2 Players)
Hero ...

[Quester]

Zeebo theorem? Get it in and hope he has a full house?

*Edited because I used the wrong theorem name.

[goat_beard]

check and let him hit the flush or stack off with 55/22?

[Vivalution]

I don't see any reason not to bet here. It certainly looks like he has a set, but there is an outside chance he has a flush draw, like AQs or 34s. If you make a small bet here he has to call with either, and is drawing dead. I say lead for $35-$40, and then push him all in on the river for his last $20.

[BevillTheDevil]

im confused w/ what villian has here...slow rollin AA pf?? does he really call your rr on flop w/ JJ/QQ?? some wierd combo draw?? I think id go w/ a CRAI or call a push here on turn...if he has a boat hes not foldin it and most likely will get it AI here, if he has like AA/QQ/JJ if we check show some weakness could get him to bet if we led could get those hands to fold and maybe he has air (probably not) but could open up the door for a bluff? i like a c/r or c/c on turn.

[marvin_1935]

isnt villain stacking himself here w/ 55/22?

other than 55/22 the only hand villain can have is AA or AQs. the 2nd K is a big scare card to both of those hands.

i think a check is in order as villain has less than a psb left and you can easily shove the river.

[PRE]

A check is more valuable.

[ama0330]

of the hands that he could hold, how many do we think will call the river but not the turn, and how many will call the turn but not the river?

[marvin_1935]

[ QUOTE ]
of the hands that he could hold, how many do we think will call the river but not the turn, and how many will call the turn but not the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

villain folds everything except 55/22 on the turn.

villain MAY call the river if a spade hits and he holds AsQs. villain MAY call river if it blanks and he holds AA.

[ama0330]

do the "may"s make a turn check more valuable?