Put villain on a range

[Fiksdal]

I've left out my own hole cards here, because they are not so important.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.15/$0.30 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $37.15
BB: $35.00
UTG: $73.80
<font color="black">Hero (MP): $143.95</font>
CO: $77.70
BTN: $95.65

<font color="black">Reads: </font><font color="blue">Villain is new to the table.</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt two cards (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $1.20</font>, 2 folds, SB calls $1.05, BB folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($2.70) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $2.60</font>, SB calls $2.60

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($7.90) 8 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

<font color="black">River:</font> ($7.90) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $7.90</font>


What are villains most likely holdings here?

What do you need to call him?

[DannyOcean_]

Villian's most likely holding seems to be a Q or a T with a decent kicker. Also possible is a flush draw.

He is new, and he cold calls pf and flop, so he appears to be a standard LP.

My first thought was that he probably hit his Q or T on the flop, and calls because he feels you may be bluffing or on a draw. He doesn't want to bet out the turn because he's scared, but is happy when you check behind and the river is a blank. he decides to bet because clearly you were on the spade draw, and now his Q/T hand looks better.

Flush draw bluffing the river is possible, but less likely i think.

[Antinome]

AsT,KsT,J8,Q8, QJ, KQ, AsJ,KsJ,9sT,99,JT, slowplayed nut/near nut flush, maybe JJ,AK, if passive.

I'd call with KQ or better.

[C4LL4W4Y]

I think checking back the turn severely widens his range on the river, as you would have bet a stronger made hand on the turn to protect against the flush draw.

I'm at work and can't do any calculations but I would say a Q/GK is probably good enough, maybe even a T ace kicker.

My range is:
slowplayed flush 5%
busted flush draw 25%
Q/GK 25%
T 15%
air/weaker made hand: 20%
set/straight: 5%
random crap: 5%

[Emperor Norton]

[ QUOTE ]
AsT,KsT,J8,Q8, QJ, KQ, AsJ,KsJ,9sT,99,JT, slowplayed nut/near nut flush, maybe JJ,AK, if passive.

I'd call with KQ or better.

[/ QUOTE ]

When a villain takes this line and then bets full pot on the river, he tends to be substantially ahead of most of that range, in my experience.

Also, you left out J9.

[ActionStan]

The top of his range is "you're screwed without the nut flush". The bottom of his non-air range is something like JsTx and he thinks you're on air and a little bit weak.

I would expect mostly decent top pair hands. Some bigger flushes that he was hoping to check raise with. Sometimes J9 or a set where he was slowed down by the flushed board. Some missed draws.

I would want at least AQ, but more like 2 pair to call your average Joe new to the table. That pot sized bet is at the strong end of the range as or more often than the weak. He's new to the table, maybe he's bluffing, but we don't have much invested in the pot and laying down a hand on a scary board is something we can use later.

[crazyhands]

He could have AK with either the A of spades or K of spades if hes a tight player that wont call preflop without a top notch hand. He might have figured that after you checked the turn, after he did, that you were on the flush draw as well and decided to bluff at it on the end when flush card did not come.