KQo from MP - Need turn and river help

[Bryan L]

I had no read on the CO as he had just posted. Was I correct to just call the turn raise after the CO wakes up? How about on the the river when you don't know if he is tight or loose. Thanks.

PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $0.05.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO (poster) calls, Button calls, SB calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (11 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, UTG+1 folds.

Turn: (7 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, SB folds, Hero calls.

River: (11 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls.

Final Pot: 15 BB

[fretelöo]

Looks pretty good. He could be semi-bluffing a draw, or raising the turn with a Q, but 2pr is relatively likely.

[tyler_cracker]

everything is totally standard until the river.

let's see. it's tough to put a range on an unknown calling a raise from a post, but as an approximation we beat:

QT (6)
76 (9)
= 16 combos

and lose to:

77 (3)
66 (3)
TT (3)
98 (16)
= 25 combos

i don't know that we're ahead enough to c/r the river, especially since i can't fold to a 3bet, but i can throw up in my mouth if it happens. hence, i think i would c/c the river.

in a bigger game i might donk/call in case CO was getting frisky with some kind of combo draw semibluff on the turn (with which he will call a bet but take a free showdown otherwise).

[fretelöo]

[ QUOTE ]
everything is totally standard until the river.

let's see. it's tough to put a range on an unknown calling a raise from a post, but as an approximation we beat:

QT (6)
76 (9)
= 16 combos

and lose to:

77 (3)
66 (3)
TT (3)
98 (16)
= 25 combos

i don't know that we're ahead enough to c/r the river, especially since i can't fold to a 3bet, but i can throw up in my mouth if it happens. hence, i think i would c/c the river.

in a bigger game i might donk/call in case CO was getting frisky with some kind of combo draw semibluff on the turn (with which he will call a bet but take a free showdown otherwise).

[/ QUOTE ]

Him being a poster, I wouldn't exclude any suited 2pr hand that includes a Q from his range?

[Buzz-cp]

[ QUOTE ]

Him being a poster, I wouldn't exclude any suited 2pr hand that includes a Q from his range?

[/ QUOTE ]

good point--I like a river raise now

[Buzz-cp]

even T7, T6

[tyler_cracker]

if we add Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], that's still 19 combos we beat vs 25 that beat us and i still don't c/r river.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
if we add Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], and Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], that's still 19 combos we beat vs 25 that beat us and i still don't c/r river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, but if you include Q7/Q6/T7/T6/AT/A7/A6 that makes a bazillion that you beat vs. 25 that beat you. I can't believe that you're reducing a nickel-dime poster's range to 7 hands.

[tyler_cracker]

he posted in CO; it's not like he posted UTG+1. he also hasn't played this like a random donkey, who i would expect to donk the turn or just call down or whatever.

i agree that at the very least, T7s/T6s belong in his range. i also agree with the first thing i said on this topic:

[ QUOTE ]
it's tough to put a range on an unknown calling a raise from a post, but as an approximation...

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe a combo analysis is the wrong tool to attack this problem. but without it, i have no idea how to quantify what we should do on the river. now that you're here, dr. coxlax, i'm sure the solution is close at hand.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
maybe a combo analysis is the wrong tool to attack this problem. but without it, i have no idea how to quantify what we should do on the river. now that you're here, dr. coxlax, i'm sure the solution is close at hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Easy there, Big Fella. Despite the majority opinion, not everything needs to be quantified precisely. Hero holds top-two. There's no flush on the board, and one straight (oops, two, er, three straights). Are you going to fold or raise/fold? Against an unknown? Unlikely. Are you going to cap if treyed? Also unlikely. So, it's a 1-2BB question in a 12-14BB pot...not a bankroll crusher, just a question of very short-term variance acceptance, and not a situation that's going to come up all THAT often.

For me, it's a no-brainer raise/call. If you're worried about going on monkey-tilt if the guy treys and you call and he shows you the set or straight, tho, then just call. KISS.