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  #1  
Old 06-04-2007, 02:22 AM
shawny boy shawny boy is offline
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Default chance of rolling a higher number (ties lose)

Subject says it all, what are the chances when we both roll a 6-sided die that I will roll a higher number than you?
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  #2  
Old 06-04-2007, 02:36 AM
Gullanian Gullanian is offline
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Default Re: chance of rolling a higher number (ties lose)

If ties are ignored then it's 1/2.

With ties as a loss, you will tie 1/6 times. So 1/2 - 1/6 = your answer I beleieve.

0.5 - (1 / 6) = 0.333333333
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  #3  
Old 06-04-2007, 03:00 AM
CT11 CT11 is offline
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Default Re: chance of rolling a higher number (ties lose)

I get 15/36~=0.417.

Proof(if you care):

Let X and Y be i.i.d. random variables defined on the same probability space (your dice and his dice). let P(X=1)=P(X=2)=...=P(X=6)=1/6 (ie a fair dice).

Let A be the event that X>Y

So, P(A) = P(X>Y)
the law of total probability implies
P(A) = P(X>Y|Y=1)P(Y=1)+...+P(X>Y|Y=6)P(Y=6)
=> P(A) = P(X>1)P(Y=1)+...+P(X>6)P(Y=6) by substitution law and independence of X and Y (two steps in one to save typing)
=> P(A) = (5/6+4/6+...0/6)*1/6 = 15/6/6 = 15/36

QED
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  #4  
Old 06-04-2007, 11:29 PM
BruceZ BruceZ is offline
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Default Re: chance of rolling a higher number (ties lose)

[ QUOTE ]
If ties are ignored then it's 1/2.

With ties as a loss, you will tie 1/6 times. So 1/2 - 1/6 = your answer I beleieve.

0.5 - (1 / 6) = 0.333333333

[/ QUOTE ]

You remove the 1/6 ties from 1, and then split the remaining 5/6 to get 5/12, in agreement with CT11.
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  #5  
Old 06-05-2007, 12:30 PM
shawny boy shawny boy is offline
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Posts: 230
Default Re: chance of rolling a higher number (ties lose)

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If ties are ignored then it's 1/2.

With ties as a loss, you will tie 1/6 times. So 1/2 - 1/6 = your answer I beleieve.

0.5 - (1 / 6) = 0.333333333

[/ QUOTE ]

You remove the 1/6 ties from 1, and then split the remaining 5/6 to get 5/12, in agreement with CT11.

[/ QUOTE ]

5/12 != 5/36

5/36 is correct ... (0 + 1/6 + 2/6 + 3/6 + 4/6 + 5/6)/6
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  #6  
Old 06-05-2007, 01:22 PM
WhiteWolf WhiteWolf is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 930
Default Re: chance of rolling a higher number (ties lose)

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If ties are ignored then it's 1/2.

With ties as a loss, you will tie 1/6 times. So 1/2 - 1/6 = your answer I beleieve.

0.5 - (1 / 6) = 0.333333333

[/ QUOTE ]

You remove the 1/6 ties from 1, and then split the remaining 5/6 to get 5/12, in agreement with CT11.

[/ QUOTE ]

5/12 != 5/36

5/36 is correct ... (0 + 1/6 + 2/6 + 3/6 + 4/6 + 5/6)/6

[/ QUOTE ]

5/12 = 15/36

0+1+2+3+4+5 = 15 != 5
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  #7  
Old 06-05-2007, 01:52 PM
shawny boy shawny boy is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 230
Default Re: chance of rolling a higher number (ties lose)

zomg, *redface*

5/12 == 15/36 whoops
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