NL400 - T9s - Decision on the Turn

pterodactyl_ · #1 06-03-2007, 01:55 PM

Bodog No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($394.00)
SB ($439.00)
BB ($186.50)
UTG ($132.50)
UTG+1 ($450.03)
MP1 ($521.25)
MP2 ($505.00)
MP3 ($442.50)
CO ($72.24)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 raises to $12, 2 folds, Hero calls $12, 2 folds.

Flop: ($30) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets $25, Hero calls $25.

Turn: ($80) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP2 bets $90, Hero ??

Villain is a 23/10 good regular, RADaddy42. I feel like he's stacking off on any river here so I guess this is mostly pot/implied odds but thoughts on the whole hand would be great.

Seeeno · #2 06-03-2007, 02:10 PM

I suck but I'd just fold pre

bottomset · #3 06-03-2007, 02:18 PM

the problem is you only have 3x the turn bet left to bet, and are getting just 2/1 on the turn

when you max out at 5/1 implied and the K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and your 2pair/trip outs can be dead its at best very thin

hmmn,

I just realised you have a gutshot too, but while it adds some value to the hand it has very little implied odds value

it sucks but I think its better to fold the turn

Raised2Win · #4 06-03-2007, 04:34 PM

What hands u think he will fold if u try to represent QT or KJ. I guess he folds one pair hands but he wouldn't bet that amount with turn with them so I belive he isn't going anywhere if u shove turn unless he has air. And if he has air he might not bet the river anymore.

what do u do if the river is a 9 and he shoves ? if u think 9 on the river is good, I don't mind calling.

friedace · #5 06-03-2007, 07:10 PM

worst case he has a set of kings, in which case, you have:
- 7 flush outs (2 pair the board)
- 3 straight outs that are likely good (unless he has A10, which is pretty much impossible).

So that's probably 10 outs worst case scenario. He still has you covered and if you call, you have 300 left. Right now, you're getting about 2:1 and you have 3.3x the turn bet left. With 10 outs, you are around 3.4:1 against. So, you think he is stacking off... you basically need to make an average of 1.4*90, which is around 130. Can you make an average of 130 in a $260 pot on the river with position?

I think so. I would call here, esp. if your read is that he is likely to bet into you and go broke. Also, let's keep in mind that if you make your flush, you have high implied odds since it's hard to put you on clubs.

Also, what if he only has AK, AA, or two pair? You could have at least 9s as an out for the AK/AA, which gives you 12 outs and only 2.66:1 dog, which is an easy call. If the 10 is an out too, that's 3 more outs, for a total of 15. If he doesn't have a set, you may also have 2 more flush outs, for a total of 17.

In any case, I think he could easily have less than a set here, so you have plenty of outs and position. Call.

Isifhan · #6 06-03-2007, 07:13 PM

Did you give thought to a re-raise pre-flop?

friedace · #7 06-03-2007, 08:21 PM

I realize that in my calcs, the $130 is to break even, but I think that a lot of the time, you can stack him on the river, esp if you make the straight and he has a set of kinds or makes two pair with the queen.

Thrahl · #8 06-03-2007, 09:11 PM

If you know he is stacking off on any river your implied odds are there, just barely.

I fold this turn though.

oober · #9 06-03-2007, 09:16 PM

This is a fold. Even if hes set, I dont think he pays you off. Not worth it.

pterodactyl_ · #10 06-03-2007, 09:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is a fold. Even if hes set, I dont think he pays you off. Not worth it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You dont think he'll pay off with a set when I hit either my gutshot straight draw or my backdoor flush draw. No way he can put me on these draws. I think the fact that they are very disguised adds value.