|
|
#1
06-02-2007, 07:47 AM
|
|||
|
|||
$50nl: set faces 3 to flush on turn
I looked at this for quite a long time last night. I still have no idea what the best line for the turn and river is.
Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter) <font color="black">SB: $23.65</font> BB: $52.00 UTG: $49.25 MP: $22.50 CO: $54.35 <font color="black">Hero (BTN): $102.05</font> <font color="black">Reads: </font><font color="blue">Villain was 20/5 over 20 hands FWIW</font> <font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players) 3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, SB calls $1.75, BB folds <font color="black">Flop:</font> ($4.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players) SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.00</font>, SB calls $3.00 <font color="black">Turn:</font> ($10.50) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) SB checks, Hero ? 
|
|
#2
06-02-2007, 08:24 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: $50nl: set faces 3 to flush on turn
Bet.
There is a good chance here he called with an Ace. Unless you think he is the type of player who can make a play like check-raising here with a flush. And the only way to find out where you stand is to make a small bet.
|
|
#5
06-02-2007, 09:09 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: $50nl: set faces 3 to flush on turn
I bet. A lot of flush draws are ruled out because the Ace in on the board. I doesn't mean he hasn't hit, but I'd guess the chances of him having a flush are roughly half what they would be without the Ace there.
If you bet $8 and he shoves for another $10? you are priced in to a $46 with 25% of filling up. That's assuming he always has the flush - which he usally does but occasionally he'll show up with 2 pair or a worse set.
|
|
#6
06-02-2007, 10:07 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: $50nl: set faces 3 to flush on turn
I think to decide whether to call the shove on the river or not you have to look at a few things.
A. What kinds of hands will he call raises with PF B. What hands does he think YOU have. C. And if he is capable of even possibly making a play on the river, thinking that you may have 2 pair and will fold, while he represents a flush. What it really boils down to throughout the hand and especially the river is your read on your opponent.
|
|
#7
06-02-2007, 10:42 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: $50nl: set faces 3 to flush on turn
Given stack sizes and he checked to us I'll bet here and call a shove, if he just calls the turn and it comes another flush card then I'll prob have to call river and spew given it's ~ 4 to 1 and I'm probably beat.
I hate this situation vs full stacks, and still dont know whther it's best to bet/check -i'm more inclined to bet than check IP and vice versa OOP.
|
|
#8
06-02-2007, 10:53 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: $50nl: set faces 3 to flush on turn
Bet 8, call a shove. If you bet 8, he only has 10 left anyway. This situation would be a lot harder if you guys were 200BB deep. But unknowns with 50BBs are normally fishy. His shoving range is huge, and you're def +EV against it.
|
|
#9
06-02-2007, 10:58 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: $50nl: set faces 3 to flush on turn
Bet...
a) We likely have the best hand b) We don't want a fourth heart c) His calling range/shoving range is weak compared to our set d) Most important factor: If we don't have best hand, fill up on river and profit!
|
|
#10
06-02-2007, 11:39 AM
|
|||
|
|||
|
Re: $50nl: set faces 3 to flush on turn
mmm I bet $7 intending to fold to a shove. He shoved, and i folded.
Looking back on it last night, I wasn't that happy because the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] makes made flushes relatively unlikely. It's also quite possible he would shove with e.g. A K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], which would easily give me odds to call. My bet size basically made it quite a tricky decision when he shoved (tho I should have called I think). Betting $8 does make it a call even if he shoves only with a flush, but I don't think that makes that betsize better. I was wondering about checking and hoping we don't see another heart / boat up. That line would get more value from his TP holdings without a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3/4 times get more from his TP +[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]kicker holdings with less variance than the bet-call idea, and wouldn't price us out of drawing to our house if he already has a flush...
|
 |
|
|
Linear Mode
