TOP #18 - Bluffing

[wallenborn]

To make sure we agree on what is meant by a bluff, we will define it as a bet or a raise with a hand which you do not think is the best hand.

The Myth and Reality of Bluffing

People who do not play much poker often think that bluffing is the central element of the game. It is true bluffing is an important aspect of poker, but most average players tend to bluff too much, particularly in limit games. With this proviso, it must be repeated that bluffing is an extremely important aspect of poker.

Recollect the Fundamental Theorem of Poker: Any time an opponent plays his hand incorrectly based on what you have, you have gained; and any time he plays his hand correctly based on what you have, you have lost. An opponent who knows you never bluff is much less likely to play his hand incorrectly. Bluffing, then, or the possibility that you might be bluffing, is another way of keeping your opponents guessing. Your occasional bluffs disguise not just the hands with which you are in fact bluffing but also your legitimate hands, with which your opponents know you might be bluffing.


Optimum Bluffing Frequency

Mathematically, optimal bluffing frequency is to bluff in such a way that the chances against you bluffing are identical to the pot odds your opponent is getting. In fact, if you bluff with that frequency, and of course, in a random way, you could tell your opponent your bluffing frequency, and that information would not help him. However, mathematically optimal bluffing strategy isn't necessarily the best strategy. It's much better if you are able to judge whether to try a bluff and when not to in order to show a bigger overall profit.


Bluff Situations

[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] When there are more cards to come: With cards to come, your bluffs should rarely be pure bluffs, but rather semi-bluffs. If you do make a pure bluff on an early round and someone raises you, don't try to tough it out. You've been caught, give it up and get on with the next hand.
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Out-of-position: Against tough opponents, it's often easier to bluff when you're acting first. A bet in early position represents more strength, and is therefore a more credible threat.
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Against come hands: If on the river you suspect your opponent has a busted draw, and you haven't improved, you should frequently try to bluff. If you have a fair hand like a small pair, however, you should try to see a cheap showdown.
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Against two ore more opponents: You should rarely try to bluff here, since your chances of succeeding decrease geometrically with the number of opponents. So even if you could profitably bluff against each isolated opponent, againsgt them as a gruop you might not be able to do it.
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] According to your opponent: You should obviously not try to bluff a perpetual caller. Against such a player you should value bet frequently instead. You can bluff if your opponent is capable of making a laydown. Correspondingly, against such a player, your value bets are thinner, since if you get called or raised, you are more likely to be beaten.
[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] As advertising: If you get caught bluffing a few times, your image as a bluffer will help you getting more value out of legitimate hands later on. Being known as someone who never bluffs allows you to steal with impunity. You should be aware of how the other players view you and use that to your advantage.



Older threads:

TOP #1 - Beyond Beginning Poker
TOP #2 - Mathematical Expectation and Hourly Rate
TOP #3 - The Fundamental Theorem of Poker
TOP #4 - The Ante Structure
TOP #5 - Pot Odds
TOP #6 - Effective Odds
TOP #7 - Implied Odds and Reverse Implied Odds
TOP #8 - The Value of Deception
TOP #9 - Win the Big Pots Right Away
TOP #10 - The Free Card
TOP #11 - The Semi-Bluff
TOP #12 - Defense Against the Semi-Bluff
TOP #13 - Raising
TOP #14 - Check-Raising
TOP #15 - Slowplaying
TOP #16 - Loose and Tight Play
TOP #17 - Position

[LearningCurve]

Although I know I'm being bluffed sometimes, I would say it's really never a good idea to bluff at 25NL. Guess this fits into the "According to Your Opponent" category.

[wallenborn]

I played almost exclusively NL25 on Party, Stars and FullTilt in May and i suggest you look at it a different way: my pokertracker stats for May say i went to showdown around 20% of the flops and won around 50% of my showdowns. That means, when i saw the flop, 10% of the time i won in a showdown. My WSF is around 35%, which means 25% of the time when i saw the flop i won without a showdown. That means: for every 2 hands i won in a showdown, there were 5 hands where i could have held 72o. I think most people's numbers look similar.

In other words: the bluffing opportunities are plenty. They might be harder to find at the lower levels, but they are there.