#1
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$20 10k watched this hand happen should BTN Call or fold on river?
Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament Blinds: t15/t30 9 players Converter Stack sizes: UTG: t2455 UTG+1: t3130 MP1: t3365 MP2: t4005 MP3: t3135 CO: t2315 BTN: t2685 SB: t2560 BB: t3110 Pre-flop: (9 players) BTN is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 folds, <font color="#cc0000">BTN raises to t90</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to t180</font>, BB folds, BTN calls t90 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t300)</font>. Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t390, 2 players) SB checks, BTN checks. Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t390, 2 players) SB checks, BTN checks. River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t390, 2 players) <font color="#cc0000">SB bets t810</font>, BTN ? Should BTN be calling here with the J8? |
#2
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Re: Call/fold on river?
You lose to TT, QQ, KK, AA, AK, KQ and KT.
You beat AT, AQ, A9? You tie AJ, KJ, QJ, JJ. Out of the hands you lose to KT seems like a stretch for a pf reraise as does KQ for that matter. AA would surely have bet that flop. KK, QQ or TT would have been a risky slowplay. AT or A9 is not usually a reraise hand so AQ is possible although the board Ks trump the two Qs. AJ might check this flop but surely would have bet the turn. AK would likely bet this flop and definitely the turn. KJ might check the flop but would bet the turn. QJ and JJ would play exactly as the hand played out. My hunch with no reads is JJ. The hands I am really worried about which are AA, KK, QQ and TT would most likely have bet that flop. Unless this guy is an extremely naive slowplayer, I would call this river bet by assuming he had some A or some J. |
#3
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Re: Call/fold on river?
folds. calling when splitting here/or beat is bad
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#4
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Re: Call/fold on river?
[ QUOTE ]
folds. calling when splitting here/or beat is bad [/ QUOTE ] While I would usually agree with this advice, this hand smells. The size of the river bet is unusual. You lose to a full house, which most likely happened on the turn but in the case of AK, happened on the river. A full house here would indicate a slowplaying nitwit (which I guess is possible) who is trying to extract a double pot size bet on the river. For this call to be correct, given the river calling odds, villain would have to have a full house 40% of the time or less. Given the way this hand went down, I think that's very plausible. |
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