Two Plus Two Newer Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Newer Archives > Tournament Poker > MTT Strategy
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 06-01-2007, 12:42 PM
Toronexti Toronexti is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: i ain\'t got my taco
Posts: 91
Default $20 10k watched this hand happen should BTN Call or fold on river?

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t15/t30
9 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t2455
UTG+1: t3130
MP1: t3365
MP2: t4005
MP3: t3135
CO: t2315
BTN: t2685
SB: t2560
BB: t3110

Pre-flop: (9 players) BTN is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
6 folds, <font color="#cc0000">BTN raises to t90</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to t180</font>, BB folds, BTN calls t90 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t300)</font>.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (t390, 2 players)
SB checks, BTN checks.

Turn: K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (t390, 2 players)
SB checks, BTN checks.

River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (t390, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets t810</font>, BTN ?

Should BTN be calling here with the J8?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 06-01-2007, 01:06 PM
PantsOnFire PantsOnFire is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,409
Default Re: Call/fold on river?

You lose to TT, QQ, KK, AA, AK, KQ and KT.

You beat AT, AQ, A9?

You tie AJ, KJ, QJ, JJ.

Out of the hands you lose to KT seems like a stretch for a pf reraise as does KQ for that matter. AA would surely have bet that flop. KK, QQ or TT would have been a risky slowplay. AT or A9 is not usually a reraise hand so AQ is possible although the board Ks trump the two Qs.

AJ might check this flop but surely would have bet the turn. AK would likely bet this flop and definitely the turn. KJ might check the flop but would bet the turn. QJ and JJ would play exactly as the hand played out.

My hunch with no reads is JJ. The hands I am really worried about which are AA, KK, QQ and TT would most likely have bet that flop.

Unless this guy is an extremely naive slowplayer, I would call this river bet by assuming he had some A or some J.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 06-01-2007, 01:32 PM
AceofSpades AceofSpades is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: sucking it up in 3bet pots
Posts: 1,181
Default Re: Call/fold on river?

folds. calling when splitting here/or beat is bad
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 06-01-2007, 01:55 PM
PantsOnFire PantsOnFire is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 2,409
Default Re: Call/fold on river?

[ QUOTE ]
folds. calling when splitting here/or beat is bad

[/ QUOTE ]
While I would usually agree with this advice, this hand smells. The size of the river bet is unusual.

You lose to a full house, which most likely happened on the turn but in the case of AK, happened on the river. A full house here would indicate a slowplaying nitwit (which I guess is possible) who is trying to extract a double pot size bet on the river.

For this call to be correct, given the river calling odds, villain would have to have a full house 40% of the time or less. Given the way this hand went down, I think that's very plausible.
Reply With Quote
Reply


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:43 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.