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How\'s my range analysis here?
Live £1/£1 PLHE, quite a few gamblers at the table. I have A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG and pot-raise raise to £4. I get three callers from MP, LP and SB for a pot of £21. Flop A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I lead out for £15 and get min-raised by MP. LP and SB fold. My head says he has a ten and I fold. I had about £40 behind and MP had me covered.
(On the flop, I like the ace but not the paired tens. Looking back I think I should have bet the pot to punish anyone on a flush draw: my 3/4-pot bet was a muddled mix of probe, value and protection!) I spent some time afterwards convincing myself I made a big mistake in putting him on a hand (in this instance the worst-case scenario) rather than a range of hands. I'm quite new to the latter way of thinking so would welcome comments on my reasoning. MP is one of the quieter players at the table, both in decibels and frequency of hands played. His calling range PF could be A-Q, A-J, A-T, A-9 (probably suited), KQ, KJ, QJ, and pairs up to tens. Pot odds give the other players a wider range. After MP's flop raise I reduce his range to A-Q, A-J, and A-9/K-Q/K-J/Q-J suited in spades. I specifically don't put him A-T or T-T: having hit the jackpot, he should be happy to let me do the betting for him at this stage. I've tinkered with those ranges using PokerStove and I'm 75-80% favourite. Even if I bring the hands including a ten into the range I'm still 65% favourite, which I think is the lesson I should be learning here - even if he would act that way with a hand that crushes me, his range for that action includes enough hands that I'm beating to make it correct for me to continue, in this case by re-raising. How does that sound? |
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