Big action on a 1-suited flop

Toonces · #1 02-20-2006, 01:05 PM

$20/$40 game at Resorts, East Chicago

MP2 is semi-loose and average aggresion. CO is a solid twenty-something player.

Hero has J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the button.

3 folds MP2 calls. 1 folds. CO calls. Hero raises. SB folds. BB calls. MP2 calls. CO calls.

Flop (8.5 SB): Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

BB checks. MP2 checks. CO checks. Hero bets. BB calls. MP2 raises. CO calls. Hero 3-bets. BB folds. MP2 calls. CO calls.

Turn: (9.25 BB) 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

MP2 checks. CO checks. Hero bets. MP2 calls. CO raises. Hero calls. MP2 calls.

River: (15.25 BB) 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
MP2 checks. CO bets. Hero folds. MP2 folds.

What do you think? Good flop 3-bet? Bad fold on river?

RobDoral · #2 02-20-2006, 02:57 PM

I like the flop 3 bet. I don't really get the checkraise on the turn by the CO player. Not sure why you're folding the river. I think there's a pretty good chance you're beat by a flush but the CO could be protecting a smaller set or even two pair.

W. Deranged · #3 02-20-2006, 02:59 PM

Folding the river here is an absolute disaster in my opinion. I cannot say this strongly enough. Folding sucks. Hugely. Don't do that. Please.

Three-betting the turn here should at least be considered.

Rest of the hand seems standard.

James. · #4 02-20-2006, 03:15 PM

bad fold. especially if it is vs. a tricky/aggressive player that may be value betting two pair or a set of 7's.

psuasskicker · #5 02-20-2006, 05:07 PM

What a terrible river fold. A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Qx, QJ, 77...all possible hands that will play that way which you beat.

This is a disasterous fold. I like the rest of the way you played it.

- C -

Toonces · #6 02-20-2006, 05:50 PM

Well, I'll never know what CO has. Now, it's true that I need to be 93% sure that neither player has a heart flush to call the river. It seems to me that anyone trying to take down the pot would be 3-betting the flop. The calling 3 bets on the flop, then waking up with 2 bets on the turn seemed like a flush over 90% of the time. Do people really slowplay 2 pair on a 1-suited flop, then wake up on the turn like this?

In addition, the typical twenty-something player seems much more likely to slowplay a made flush than to check-raise a medium strength hand on the turn.

That being said, I wouldn't have posted the hand if I wasn't worried I had made a mistake here. What to y'all place the probability of a flush being out here as?

James. · #7 02-20-2006, 05:55 PM

he may know that his equity skyrockets on a nonheart turn thus the raise.

W. Deranged · #8 02-20-2006, 05:58 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What to y'all place the probability of a flush being out here as?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's certainly not 93%. Maybe something like 50% or so... As I said, I think it's low enough that three-betting the turn should at least be considered.

psuasskicker · #9 02-20-2006, 08:52 PM

It's certainly not 93%. Maybe something like 50% or so... As I said, I think it's low enough that three-betting the turn should at least be considered.

Maybe lower. I don't even worry about the one player. He's almost for sure flush drawing with a big heart. Just makes it less likely the other guy actually has a heart. He could also easily think you're on a hand like K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and that he can bluff you off if his flush draw doesn't get there.

There are so many hands he could have here...

That said, I don't like reraising the turn, cause if he does have a flush, he'll almost for sure cap it and bet the river (unless a heart comes and he doesn't have the Ace).

I do think this river is worth betting if he checks, and no way do I fold to a cr if I bet it.

- C -