I liked this shove until I reviewed the session (Warning: Math inside)

[Sam T.]

Villain is 37/16 over a tiny sample, though I don't think I knew it at the time. Hand, then analysis.


Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $10.70
BB: $14.15
UTG: $15.30
MP: $9.90
CO: $11.40
<font color="black">Hero (BTN): $10.05</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, CO calls $0.10, <font color="red">Hero raises to $0.50</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $0.90</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.40

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($2) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SB bets $2.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $9.15</font>

Pre-flop is meh. Yeah, I'll be in position, but at this level, re-raises usually mean what they say. It was just so small, you know?

Flop: If I've got him on a tight range (overpair to the board, or a very strong ace) my shove will only fold the the latter. So, I get a fold say, half the time. If (and this is a big if) this is right, pretty easy shove, right?

Maths - which could be waay out to lunch. I was a history major:
(Shove/fold) + (shove/win) + (shove/lose)=
(.5 * $4) + (.25 * $9.25) + (.25 * (-9.15))
$2 + $2.31 - $2.28 = +$2

As to the amount, it felt a bit like an overbet, but the stacks are awkward enough I couldn't come up with a better amount. Yes or no?

Bear with me, I'm a refugee from donkaments, and don't try math very often.