Belmont Stakes

Sluss · #1 05-31-2007, 04:13 PM

Street Sense out of Belmont

Should make things more interesting for the exotics. Curlin and Hard Spun will still run and are clearly the class of the field. I think you will see some horses come out of the woodwork (Rags to Riches, Chelokee,Slew's Tizzy) that have a good chance of hitting the board.

Bishop22 · #2 05-31-2007, 04:30 PM

I don't think I'll be playing exotics on Belmont Day, I don't think it is really possible to separate the bottom tier. I have a feeling HS misses the board, he didn't look great in the paddock on Preakness day, still ran a good race but that might be a sign of deteriorating form. There are no pedigree plays this year, HS is only horse who would figure to run that far if he's 100% and gets a better trip/pace senario.

Sluss · #3 05-31-2007, 05:15 PM

I thought I read that R2R had a pretty good pedigree for this distance?

I think I would have to see the full field to make some pace judgments before I would lay off of HS. And some workouts before I could get off of Curlin.

Bishop22 · #4 05-31-2007, 05:26 PM

My pedigree statement was just based on the Tomlinsons, the figures I use don't come out until the day before the race. Most of the Belmont longshots over the years have had >420 Tomlinsons (e.g. Birdstone) and there is no horse in this race with a figure in that ballpark besides HS (413). As for R2R, obv AP Indy and Seattle Slew won the Belmont and I believe that Deputy Minister is considered to add a dose of distance on the dam side so I don't know why the Tomlinson isn't higher.

NajdorfDefense · #5 05-31-2007, 05:34 PM

I heard RtR and Chelokee are both out. Liking Curlin right now.

TripleH68 · #6 06-01-2007, 01:11 PM

I did not want to start a new thread and the Belmont looks like a dud, so...

Ohio Derby this Saturday looks like a good betting race, though I can't find the pp's for free anywhere.

$300,000 Ohio Derby (gr. II, Race 9, 5:33 p.m.), 3-Year-Olds, 1 1/8 Miles
PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, ML Odds
1. Forty Grams (KY), Corey J. Lanerie, 115, 9/2
2. Officer Rocket (GB), John McKee, 117, 4/1
3. Moyer's Pond (KY), Justin Shepherd, 115, 5/1
4. Starbase (FL), Willie Martinez, 115, 6/1
5. Delightful Kiss (FL), Jeffrey Sanchez, 115, 8/1
6. Cowtown Cat (KY), John R. Velazquez, 124, 5/2
7. Danny Sez (KY), Luis A. Gonzalez, 115, 20/1
8. Reporting for Duty (KY), Luis M. Quinones, 115, 6/1

Cowtown Cat has the distinction of running last in the Kentucky Derby, then being sent to Thistledown. Poor guy.

A few of you guys are very sharp, so any thoughts on this one other than that you don't care?

rush66 · #7 06-02-2007, 12:25 AM

Would CC be the one to beat?

TripleH68 · #8 06-02-2007, 08:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Would CC be the one to beat?

[/ QUOTE ]

Definitely, but he is also the lone highweight about to face better competition than his pre-derby races. It is always tough to get excited about Pletcher sending a horse to Ohio.

After some thought I like the way Forty Grams has been progressing. And a couple of the other jockeys in this race are unplayable.

Clarkmeister · #9 06-02-2007, 03:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I did not want to start a new thread and the Belmont looks like a dud, so...

Ohio Derby this Saturday looks like a good betting race, though I can't find the pp's for free anywhere.

$300,000 Ohio Derby (gr. II, Race 9, 5:33 p.m.), 3-Year-Olds, 1 1/8 Miles
PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, ML Odds
1. Forty Grams (KY), Corey J. Lanerie, 115, 9/2
2. Officer Rocket (GB), John McKee, 117, 4/1
3. Moyer's Pond (KY), Justin Shepherd, 115, 5/1
4. Starbase (FL), Willie Martinez, 115, 6/1
5. Delightful Kiss (FL), Jeffrey Sanchez, 115, 8/1
6. Cowtown Cat (KY), John R. Velazquez, 124, 5/2
7. Danny Sez (KY), Luis A. Gonzalez, 115, 20/1
8. Reporting for Duty (KY), Luis M. Quinones, 115, 6/1

Cowtown Cat has the distinction of running last in the Kentucky Derby, then being sent to Thistledown. Poor guy.

A few of you guys are very sharp, so any thoughts on this one other than that you don't care?

[/ QUOTE ]

I like the 1 and the 8 a little.

rush66 · #10 06-08-2007, 11:39 AM

I have a question for you guys. This may be stupid and probably is, however, I proposed a buddy of mine on a wager that curlin would show in the race tomorrow and he said if I give me "proper" odds he would consider the bet. Is it possible to figure out what it would pay. Curlin is 6-5 right now to win. So I figure it has to be a pretty large ML...-500???, considering there are only 7 horses. Any way to figure this out more precisely? Thanks.