Theory: pricing out a flush draw

jimpo · #1 05-31-2007, 03:01 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($44.95)
Hero ($63.15)
Button ($50.95)
SB ($35.25)
BB ($50.95)
UTG ($36.95)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $5, SB calls $5, BB calls $5.

Turn: ($21) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $14.5, SB folds, BB calls $14.50.

River: ($50) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $29.45 (All-In), Hero calls $29.45.

Final Pot: $108.90

Results in white below: 
BB has Js As (one pair, threes).
Hero has Qh Qc (two pair, queens and threes).
Outcome: Hero wins $108.90. 

This time the hand ended well for me, but poking around with pokertracker raised my eyebrows a bit. On the turn BB has 25% equity. Pot is 21 and BB has 44 behind.

The way I sized my bet on the turn, BB had good enough odds to call, assuming that I cannot fold on the river (which I probably couldn't). Even if I would full pot it, he would need to win 3*21 = 63 when he hits to break even, which he certainly will (already 2*21 from the pot on the turn).

So it would seem that I cannot fully protect my hand from a flush draw + A with a "standard" 2/3 pot turn bet or even a full pot bet (both of which are HUGE when compared to LHE bets).

Should I have played the hand somehow differently to avoid this problem? Or is this just one of those situations where both players can play profitably?

Fiksdal · #2 05-31-2007, 03:06 PM

Are you calling the river shove on a spade river though?

Probably not. So villain doesn't have the right odds. I like your bet sizings, avoiding to give correct odds, while still setting up a nice pot size for a river shove.

Also, I'd really some discussion on villains perspective of this hand, beacause I wonder what the optimal line for his hand on the flop is.

prodonkey · #3 05-31-2007, 03:17 PM

He's getting 2.4:1 on the turn bet, which isn't the right price.

Assuming you stack off every time he hits he's getting 4.5:1 including his implied odds. Which is the right price.. barely. But I doubt he's going to get your stack every time he hits, and if he's going to make bluffs like that he's going to be losing his stack often.

I'd bet a little more on the turn usually. 18 or so.

Atlanta Andrew · #4 05-31-2007, 03:21 PM

If you're always going to call a river bet (a weak assumption, imo), then yeah, you'll need to overbet the pot to setup a -EV call from villain when he has this exact hand. But the main points you should be focused on are:

1. You don't always need to call the river bet. Don't justify villain's optimistic implied odds.

2. Put villain on a range of hands. He's not always going to have 11 outs against you like in this hand. It will usually be 2 - 8. I think it's counterproductive to think about the best way to play against one exact hand.

I think you played this hand fine.

-Andrew

jimpo · #5 05-31-2007, 04:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Are you calling the river shove on a spade river though?

[/ QUOTE ]

They way I played it, and getting 1:2.6, I probably am, at least most of the time... I'm not feeling good about it, but probably yes. I remember having a discussion about this a some time ago when I was coming from limit to NL. I had hard time agreeing that you can be "pot committed" since at LHE you are making similar folds on river all the time getting much much better odds. Someone explained to me that it is OK to call that on the river, since your line is such that you will still end up making profit on the whole hand thanks to your turn bets, on the long run. I'm not 100% comfortable with that concept, go ahead and give comments.

But, maybe more important, is that I don't have QQ+ here all the time. Sometimes I might have 88 or 56 (not that often though) and this means, from my opponents perspective, that I am not calling river bet 100% of times when he makes his flush.