Early in a 10K -- So Many Options, Not Sure Which is Best

This is pretty early in a Borgata 10K ME. Blinds still at 25/50 and we were given 15K starting stacks. Mine is down to 13K and Villains covers by a little.

Villain has been pretty active given that its the first level. Which is to say, he's not just sitting there waiting for AA/KK/AK to come along.

I open for 175 in the CO-1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Folded to Villain in the SB who just calls. BB folds and we're HU.

Flop J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. Villain checks and I fire 300. Villain CRs to 900.

First decision point. 4-betting seemed useless since I need to fold to large enough 5-bet and I assumed that a lot of his flop 3-betting CR range might also 5-bet me. I'd much rather hit a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and win a huge pot from a flopped set or a slowplayed KK+. I decide to just call.

Turn is an interesting card... the Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Villain leads for just less than the pot.

What's the move here and plan for the river if it:
a) bricks?
b) comes a Q?
c) comes a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] that pairs the board?

[Ansky]

a) maybe fold maybe call depends on what he does
b) prob just call
c) So you mean exactly the six of spades? Seems like just calling would be best unless he bets small.

[THEOSU]

call, ldo.

a) if he bets again, you're probably beat. he's not gonna bet AJ 3 times when the river bricks. if checked to you, look into his soul and try to figure out if he has AJ or has more than one pair, and therefore whether betting your "missed flush draw" woudl get value.

b) call/bet.

c) i wouldn't worry about a plan for the one card in the deck that this applies to. but call/bet.

i mean, unless he pushes or something. then you gotta look into his soul and stuff.


edit: ansky, i've always wanted to go to kfdljgdfalgj;relkjy this time of year. how is it?

[uclabruinz]

Call the turn. River depends on action/read.

OK, I don't think there will be too much dissent on the turn. Anything but calling seems a little nutty/stupid.

The river in fact bricked with the 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Villain stared me down (not sure why) and ultimately bet out between 1/2 and 2/3 pot. The problem is, my cards pretty much prevent him from having a ton of FDs, so I really can't figure out much I'm ahead of.

[uclabruinz]

The stare down in that situation usually means a big hand (i.e., "I want to make him think I have to really think about what he has when in fact my hand is just soooo beautiful").

[Foucault]

Very interesting hand. I think you've played perfectly so far and agree completely with your reasoning for not 3-betting flop.

I don't see much reason to do anything but call the turn. If he's behind, he's probably drawing at 3-6 clean outs plus some dirty ones, so there's not a lot of value in raising. Folding is out of the question since you're sometimes good unimproved plus have 7 outs to the nuts or second nuts (straight flush draws are in his range, but obviously if he catches gin on the river that's just bad luck).

The river's going to be an interesting spot no matter what, since your hand looks quite a bit like a draw, is actually somewhat better than a draw, but is generally still behind the range he is representing (which, to be clear, is distinct from his actual range).

a. If he checks, you need to value bet. Anywhere from 2000-4000 works, but I'd recommend the higher end of the range, since you want to represent a busted draw to get called by the lowest end of his range. There's a good chance he's checking some better hands like 76, but I think you're ahead of his c/c range. This is actually a good spot for a river c/r bluff by him, since your failure to raise the turn really limits your hand strength, but I don't think you can give him credit for such a play, especially since he'll be offering you pretty good odds, and you'd need to fold.

If he makes a blocking bet of 1200-2000, I'd raise to about 3x his bet for the same reason I'd value bet if he checked.

A blatant value bet of like 2000-4000 on his part is tricky. I think his range for this is primarily hands moderately better than yours, mostly 76 and QJ, hoping to get called by stuff like AA and KK. Flip a coin? Lean towards fold?

If he bets big, like 4000+, his range is going to be busted draws and sets. I'd fold, despite the concern I mentioned above about how clearly weak your hand is, because you know he isn't on the nut flush draw, stack depth isn't ideal for him to play a draw this way, and most people just plain don't bluff the river enough.

b. A Q actually doesn't change your plan that much, because it counterfeits 76 and still leaves you behind QJ and sets. I'd obviously bet if he checks, and I'd raise a blocking bet (fold to a shove), but I'd fold to a big bet, and would actually be more inclined to fold to anything that I felt was a value bet trying to milk an overpair, since any hand he could have that still beats an overpair also beats AQ.

c. Bet if he checks, but man am I hating life if he check-shoves. I can taste puke just thinking about it. I guess it's a fold, but let's hope it doesn't come to that. Raise a blocking bet, but leave yourself room to fold to a shove.

d. You didn't ask, but I think an Ace on the river is worth discussing, also. I'd actually rather see an Ace than a Queen, since there are more ways for worse hands to pay off and for him to misread our hand as a bare nut draw that backdoored top pair rather than as top two. Bet if checked to, raise a blocking bet, call a mid-sized value bet, consider calling a larger bet (depends whether you think QJ and 76 are in his range, I'd assert that they could be because of the chance that you backdoored somethink like TPTK with AsKs).

[Mingdu]

If I call that turn I call the river bet ...

[Foucault]

[ QUOTE ]
If I call that turn I call the river bet ...

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? A lot of the value in the turn call comes from the chance of improving. When the river bricks, your hand loses a ton of value.

[uclabruinz]

[ QUOTE ]
If I call that turn I call the river bet ...

[/ QUOTE ]

No offense, but that is a god awful reason to be calling the river bet.