Nice Little Yankees Prop on Bodog

[Utah]

I found this in my valium induced haze.

When will Yankees get above 500 again
After allstar break +220
Never +400

Bet 100 on after allstar break
Bet 65 on never

Lose 165 in before allstar
Win about 165 in after allstar or never

To get to yes before allstar they have to go 23 and 13. There is no way they are even money to do this. Very EV bet.

Edit: I just looked at their schedule more closely and it is a bit brutal.

3 boston 36-15
4 chicago 24-23
3 Pittsburgh 23-28
3 Arizona 31-23
3 Mets 33-17
3 Colorodo 25-27
3 SF 24-26
3 Baltimore 24-27
3 Oakland 25-26
4 MN 26-25
3 LA 31-21

6 winning teams and 4 brutal teams - Boston. LA. Mets. Arizona

5 losing teams but all just barely. There are no KCs or Texas types on the schedule.

[thing85]

I'm slightly confused. You're saying they need to be above .500 when the allstar break hits. This bet seems to say that they must get above .500 sometime by the allstar break. In other words, they could go on a 13-3 run and this bet would lose. I'm not saying this still isn't a good bet, but they do not need to go 23-13 for this to lose.

[New001]

Yankees 3rd order record right now is 27.5-21.5 I think, or it was before tonight's loss. I love the first bet and hate the second. They're a virtual lock IMO to finish the season above .500.

Edit: And they not only have to finish the season there, but just reach .500 at some point all year. I can't imagine +400 being good enough.

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm slightly confused. You're saying they need to be above .500 when the allstar break hits. This bet seems to say that they must get above .500 sometime by the allstar break. In other words, they could go on a 13-3 run and this bet would lose. I'm not saying this still isn't a good bet, but they do not need to go 23-13 for this to lose.

[/ QUOTE ]
That is correct and I missed that in my haze.

I ran some simple simulations. These are the number of times the team reaches 9 wins over loses at any point prior to allstar break.

Using 50/50 chance for each game - 2 out of 20
Using 55/45 chance for each game - 8 out of 20
Using 60/40 chance for each game - 16 out of 20

Given their current records and there upcoming competition, it would be hard to give them over 50/50. But, the bet is still positive EV if you assume 55% chance of winning each game. If you got to 60% win rate (roughly a 100 win season) then the bet is -EV.

Note - I just checked and the odds on the after allstar break have dropped to +200 now.

[thing85]

The wording is still kind of odd. The overall bet asks when they will get ABOVE .500, but the 3rd option says "Will not get TO .500 this year."

In other words, if the Yankees ONLY make it TO .500 after the allstar break, you lose the "get ABOVE .500" bet and lose the "Will not get TO .500 this year" bet. Polish middle anyone? I'm not sure if Bodog intended it that way, however.

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
The wording is still kind of odd. The overall bet asks when they will get ABOVE .500, but the 3rd option says "Will not get TO .500 this year."

In other words, if the Yankees ONLY make it TO .500 after the allstar break, you lose the "get ABOVE .500" bet and lose the "Will not get TO .500 this year" bet. Polish middle anyone? I'm not sure if Bodog intended it that way, however.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks for pointing that out. I confirmed with bodog - "The "Never" Prop should read "Will not get above 500 this Year". This wording will be updated shortly"

[thing85]

Great, thanks. That's what I figured, but you never know.

[crockpot]

from CRIS:

[ QUOTE ]
MLB PROPS - Jun 29
WILL THE YANKEES REACH THE 0.500% MARK
ANYTIME DURING JUNE 2007

Yes YANKS .500 +180
NO UNDER .500 -220

[/ QUOTE ]

edited for clarity.

[JPT III]

I don't see either of these under MLB Team Props. Are they still up?

[Utah]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't see either of these under MLB Team Props. Are they still up?

[/ QUOTE ]
No. They took the lines down.