(2/5) 300bb deep, middle set with flush draw against maniac...

[imfatandugly]

Villian here is a bit crazy, loves to push people around but is fairly predictable. I raise preflop to 15 on the button with QsQT9s, (3 handed). Villian reraises to 100, I am 95% sure he has aces here. I call. Flop comes TsQKs and he bets 200. After the call I am left with about 1100. Obviously I want to get the money all in on the flop, as i'm a substantial favorite over the nut straight. But the problem is that if i'm right, and he has AA he will fire again huge on the turn, since he knows its not very likely for me to have AJ since he has two aces in his hand. Also if he has the ace of spades, i call the flop and a spade hits on the turn , he is going to make another huge bet (regardless if he has the nuts or not). He will probably call another 400 or so with the nut flush draw, and every once in awhile reraise my allin with the nut flush draw, knowing that Im going to have a hard time calling with out AJ. Obviously hes going to fold with dry aces to a raise on the flop. So what should I do?

[oneouterson]

I'd push but I play crazy. what is your image?

[imfatandugly]

kinda tight, which is why I was thinking of calling...if that makes any sense.

[Elrazor]

i hate calling here - its either re raise or fold for me

i think you are flipping here - you are a slight fav v a bare straight, if he has a flush draw too he has you in a very bad spot

personally i would wait for a better situation than one where i am probably flipping, althought is does depend on your read

[Eiretree]

You say hes a maniac yet your 95% sure he has aces when he reraises you preflop? How crazy is this guy? Will he bluff the bare ace of spades again on the turn river? How aggressivly does he play te AAxx with 2 spades.
If he has the bare straight your a favourite so raising is better because more than likely the moeny will go in.
If u think he would fire again with the AA+ nut flush draw/ bare A of spades then calling is better because you can shove the turn knowing that your ahead of a large part of his range and even if he has AJ you will win 22.5% of the time anyway but you would have to have a strong read on the range of hands he would bet the turn with.
Given that he reads you as tight you might be better raising and just hoping he doesnt have AJ with nut flush draw. Also by raising you might get him to dump kkxx (is it possible that he has this hand?)

[imfatandugly]

[ QUOTE ]
You say hes a maniac yet your 95% sure he has aces when he reraises you preflop? How crazy is this guy? Will he bluff the bare ace of spades again on the turn river? How aggressivly does he play te AAxx with 2 spades.
If he has the bare straight your a favourite so raising is better because more than likely the moeny will go in.
If u think he would fire again with the AA+ nut flush draw/ bare A of spades then calling is better because you can shove the turn knowing that your ahead of a large part of his range and even if he has AJ you will win 22.5% of the time anyway but you would have to have a strong read on the range of hands he would bet the turn with.
Given that he reads you as tight you might be better raising and just hoping he doesnt have AJ with nut flush draw. Also by raising you might get him to dump kkxx (is it possible that he has this hand?)

[/ QUOTE ]

hes never made such a big reraise preflop before, in fact i dont think ive seen him reraise before preflop. His agression is mostly on flop and turn. In my experience this is almost always aces.
He will probably go nuts on the turn with AA with two spades regardless if it hits or not. So he'll go nuts on the turn with AA with a flush draw, AAJ, and if a spade hits on the turn he'll go nuts either way (two spades or just As). He would autobet this flop no matter what.

Also if he has just AJ on the flop im about 60-66% to win depending on his side cards. So i'd definately want to get it in on the flop if thats what he has. The only thing I want to give him a chance to hang himself on the turn if he doesnt have it. Just can't figure out what outways what.

[RoundTower]

are you playing no limit here, how did he make it 100? I would just go all in now, the worst that can happen is he folds AA with the lone As and even that has some equity against you.

[mixmastermattyk]

The turn is a lot easier to play if you get all-in on the flop...

If he actually is a maniac he could have anything here and will often get it in with you as a massive favourite. Against a bare AJ you're a favourite and if he happens to have a monster like AAJx with spades you've actually got outs and still have equity against a geniune monster. Just get it in and if he folds, bad luck, you still won, but I can't see him folding any of the hands you think he'll still go nuts with on the turn, so make your decision easier and get the money in.

[Petteri]

You have excellent multi-way hand against maniac. Your hand is probably best at the moment. Only hands you are worried about are AJ with spade draw and KK.

Deck is full of scare cards. Make future decisions easy, raise pot.