200NL Draw, turndecision versus lag

[zatacka]

Reads: 34 / 27 / 2.x , he views me as a TAG 20/18~, i have been raising his blinds pretty much and he defends them much.

No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players


Stack sizes:
UTG: $169.99
CO: $441.96
Hero: $294.70
SB: $894.19
BB: $198.45

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $8</font>, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($18, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $16</font>, SB calls.

Turn: 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($50, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $50</font>

[Margin Of Error]

I might fold this, his line looks pretty strong.

[joeblack]

I hate when the board pairs and we are on a draw [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Honestly though... we can only put him on a 6. Straights, two-pair, etc. is all out of the question since he just called the flop.

With $50 into $50 and your not getting paid on a river bet if a club falls, I think this is a fold.

[Brad1970]

[ QUOTE ]
I might fold this, his line looks pretty strong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldn't a laggy bet/raise the flop if he had top pair? Good spot to bluff.

[Brad1970]

Hero has a good drawing hand. I'd probably call &amp; c/f the river unimproved.

[fsista]

Raising to 200$ is really badass here.

[kayfish77]

how does noone raise this turn?

[dirtytricks]

I fold this. You risk to get it in drawing dead.

[blankoblanco]

[ QUOTE ]
I fold this. You risk to get it in drawing dead.

[/ QUOTE ]

2 o' clubs

[Veron]

I think our hand is too strong to fold here. If we're pessimistic about his handrange, and say that he's never bluffing and could play a set or straight like this, we still have 24% equity, which is enough if we count on getting a bet in on the river if we make our hand (true?)

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.327% 24.07% 00.25% 286 3.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 75.673% 75.42% 00.25% 896 3.00 { 99-88, 66, 44-33, A6s, 86s, 75s+ }

If we include a small change that villain is bluffing by adding a suited combo to the range that didn't connect the flop in any way (=~10% bluffing factor) then our equity boosts to 32%+
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.771% 32.55% 00.22% 444 3.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 67.229% 67.01% 00.22% 914 3.00 { 99-88, 66, 44-33, A6s, QJs, 86s, 75s+ }

I think I'd call and fold river UI.