2nd pair vs LAG, bet the turn?

[aargh57]

Villain in this hand is 46/23/1.5 after 1100 hands (mostly datamined). Is this a good situation to do a value check on the turn as if we get c/r'd we're probably beat but should call down as villain may be c/r bluffing? Also, if he's got crap then a check will earn a bet on the river that he may have folded on the turn. Anyway...

Full Tilt 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.25 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

River: (7.25 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 9.25 BB

[sweetjazz]

I think bet/calldown is the worst option, because there aren't many draws to be bluffing and this is a pretty suicidal board to peel in order to try a check/raise bluff.

So I'd bet/fold this turn against a passive opponent and check behind and call a river bet against an aggressive one. The criteria between which line to take is primarily based on how likely I am to induce bluffs on the river and how likely I can profitably bet both big streets UI for value (assuming a blank river).

[Oink]

[ QUOTE ]
I think bet/calldown is the worst option, because there aren't many draws to be bluffing and this is a pretty suicidal board to peel in order to try a check/raise bluff.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ya, I check behind against this guy.