Crossroads: Should I Bother with the Stock Market or Sports Betting?

[CrayZee]

Hi all,

I know just about nothing about either subject, but have recently been considering whether or not to bother with them. The reason I posted in this forum as opposed to sports betting is because I'm more interested in the stock market.

Background, if it matters: I have an undergrad education in computer science and math. I started studying poker in October 2004. I devoured about 50 or so primary and supplementary texts since I've started. I played about 30k LHE computer simulation hands starting in early January 2005 before wagering a penny. (I've always had an aversion to losing my money and a general dislike of gambling.)

I signed up for the free Royal Vegas Poker $10 in March 2005. I built that up to a nice bankroll that cost me a $100 initial deposit (to do their $50 initial deposit bonus). I started at the nickel-dime tables. Currently, I play up to $10-$20 when a game looks especially good, but usually a mix of $1-$2, $2-$4, and $3-$6 6-max. Also, I tend not to play a majority of my hands at sites that do not offer me a reasonable rakeback deal. However, I will clear the occasional reload bonus at some sites that I already have accounts with (e.g. Paradise Poker). I have not played a single poker hand in a card room yet, unless tiny ante home games count.

Due to my inexperience (about 200k real money hands), I still have a lot to learn. My knowledge of the game reasonable, I guess, but I still have psychological issues to resolve. For example, I have some issues with tilt (albeit I'm getting better dealing with it). Perhaps this is exaggerated due to the fact that I recently moved over to higher variance short handed tables.

Anyway, should I just focus on poker and dump on expanding my knowledge base? I'm definitely willing to put the time in to study good texts as I did in college and with poker. I'm not interested in wagering, say, a part of my bankroll, saving, etc. on the stock market since I have absolutely no edge. That's just stupid. Obviously, doing simulations is the way I'd start. I'd prefer to study for awhile and then do simulations when I actually know something.

Are these subjects worth studying in depth?

Basic Economics
Game Theory
Information Theory
Utility Theory
Probablity and Statistics
"Pragmatic" Investing Strategy

Anything else?

All I know about the stock market is that it's supposedly similar to poker in some ways. I also know that some investors employ a Kelly Criterion bankroll strategy of risk vs. reward.

[Recliner]

Poker is only good for so long. After a point you will no longer have the skill or be willing to deal with the variance and risks of playing higher so you'll end up with excess bankroll. If you have a job in addition to poker you should be saving money and looking for places to invest it to get a good return on it.

If you have a high aversion to risk you might want to look into sports arbitrage. Its very simple to do, but no one likes to help others do it because the more people that do it, the less opportunities there will be.

I think you should look into basic economics and behavioral finance. These two things should give you a better outlook on why people do what they do with their investment decisions.

[CrayZee]

Thanks for the response.

I didn't mention it in my OP, but you did...sports arbitrage seems easier than financial markets to me. When I was younger, I used to follow pro sports because I made a reasonable sum of money in the sports card boom of the early 90s. After I got out of that, I haven't followed up on sports as closely. I'm unsure whether it's worth it to get back on the info train.

So, I've decided to purchase some (hopefully) good textbooks to study up on economic related topics. I'll also probably look into some of Mason's reviews of sports gambling texts and get one or two to whet my palette.

[Indiana]

poker and stocks good, sports betting bad. advanced subjects unnecessary at middle to lower limits of play.

Indy

[Sniper]

As far as studying goes, from the subjects listed... Focus on Game Theory and Probability/Statistics!

[CrayZee]

[ QUOTE ]
As far as studying goes, from the subjects listed... Focus on Game Theory and Probability/Statistics!

[/ QUOTE ]

Roger that. I picked up a couple of dated texts that seem reasonable to get started with: Games and Decisions by Luce and Raiffia, and von Neumann and Morgenstern's Theory of Games and Economic Behavior.

As far as probability/statistics goes, I ordered Epstein's The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic.

To break up the mathematical rigor, I like to read biographical/historic texts to pace myself. Do you have any texts that you'd recommend? Or are the books that I ordered poor choices because of advances (mathematically rigorous or not)?

Thanks in advance...

Walter

[hawk59]

If you want to get started down the right path then forget about the complicated stuff, very little of it has any place in successful investing. Learn about the basics of business, learn how to read and understand financial statements, and read about people that have had very good long term performance records. Maybe you need to learn through experience about why all the smart sounding complicated stuff is useless, but the vast majority of people never get off that path.

[CrayZee]

You're probably right. But the thing is I have studied plenty of business on my own. The financial side where I'm lacking. Learning through experience may be obvious to you, but not to me. Perhaps the keep it simple method is best. Thanks for the advice!

[jimmifli]

[ QUOTE ]
You're probably right. But the thing is I have studied plenty of business on my own. The financial side where I'm lacking. Learning through experience may be obvious to you, but not to me. Perhaps the keep it simple method is best. Thanks for the advice!

[/ QUOTE ]

Start with Buffet's letters to shareholders, they're free and on his website.

[CrayZee]

Sweet, I'll check it out. Thanks.