Long analysis post: An interesting hand against 2+2er BisopsFinger

Fiksdal · #1 05-27-2007, 05:13 PM

Here is a hand where I make comments and hand reading analysis at every option hero has in the hand. Doing this is awesome for improving the way you think about the game.

I made this post mostly for contriubting to the forum. But I 'd also like discussion of course. It's pretty long, but I think it's worth the read.

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $26.85
Hero (BB): $25.00
UTG: $23.15
CO: $36.30
BTN: $23.45

Reads: This is from today. I wasn't the one playing this one, it was a friend of mine who I am sharing account with. He sendt it to me right now and wanted some thoughts, and I thought it was an interesting hand.

Villain is 2+2er BishopsFinger, solid TAG who is 4-tabling while the hand is taking place. 17/14/9.50 over a decent sample.

In this particular session hero has been pretty tight, like 15/12/3. But bishops probably has old stats on me with a big sample, and I'm gonna be something like 19/16/4.

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, CO raises to $1.00, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75

Here is the first spot, which I think hero kinda [censored] up. Villain is a positional player, and we are currently beating his CO range...

which should probably be like 22+, A9+, A7s+, KJ+, KTs+, QJ+, 89s+.

So we are playing the hand. But flat calling here leaves us without innitiative in the hand. For instance, even if villain has ATs here, he will be able to make us fold the best hand with his cbet on most flops. I think we should 3bet him here, for value and to gain innitiative in the pot. Also to avoid playing against him OOP, and for a great chance to take down the pot right here, even if he has something like 66. I think the optimal play here is to raise to $3.


Flop: ($2.10) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7

4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $2.00,

Here is another interesting spot, and Hero chose to lead. That was not optimal IMO. If we had 77 here, a lead would be fine because people usually don't give donkbets all that much credit, and we would be wanting to build a big pot, to make sure we stack him the times he wants to go to the felt. If we had 77 we would not want to scare him with a CR.

In this case though, our hand isn't strong enough so that we are gonna get him to stack off for 100bbs the times we have him beat. I have a hard time seeing bishops stack off with JJ here. If we get 100bbs in here, bishops is most likely gonna be holding AA/KK/QQ/77/44 or AQ.

This is why I check this flop. I expect him to cbet really often when we do this, which is nice, because then we get that $2 out of him when he has AK, JJ or TJs.

When he bets we probably just flat call, because we don't wanna build a big pot with this hand OOP against him on this dry board. We are doing fine against the range he raised preflop with and cbets the flop bet. BUT, we are crushed by the range that gets it AI here or even calls a CR. I say we try and play a small pot with this hand.

Hero in the hand actually made a donkbet, which is pretty bad IMO. We don't wanna scare away all the hands we beat, and we are in a tough spot if raised.

CO raises to $7.00, Hero calls $5.00

OK, so Bishops raised our donkbet. What does this mean? Personally, I raise donkbets all of the time. They usually mean a medicore hand that wants to "see where it is at". Few people at 25NL donkbet sets/flopped monsters (although sometimes they should).

Is bishops capable of raising our donkbet with air here (AK for instance)? He is an aggressive player, so that is possible. Personally I do this a lot, and I have a feeling bishops could be the type to do that sometimes. I don't know for sure though. I think he definitley would take a stand with a lot of his pairs though. I'll try to give him a range after he raises our donkbet.

44, 77, QQ

KK, AA

AQ, KQ, QJ

88, 99, TT, JJ,

AK, Other whiffed stuff. (some portion of the time)

We might be doing OK against this range especially if it includes the whiffed stuff he gets stubborn with and raises.

However, if we push here, what does he call with? Probably not much. The sets obv, AA/KK too, and probably AQ. I'm pretty sure he folds the underpairs, and I'm pretty sure he'll get away from QJ. Maybe he'll fold KQ.

So the range that calls a push basically has us crushed, while he folds all the hands that we beat. That is a bad result for us, and we can not push here. The risk/reward ratio just sucks.

Thankfully, TAGs are usually predictable. If we call here, and check the turn, villain will check behind for pot control with JJ, QJ, 99, air, etc. So if we do that, he will let us know where we stand! If villain checks behind on a blank turn, we can put out a little value bet on a blank river, which he might pay off. If villain fires again on the turn we basically know we are beat, and can get away. Sounds like a good plan to me.

Turn: ($16.10) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $8.00, Hero raises all-in to $17.00

As you can see, my friend did not consider theese things. Possibly he just saw the heart and decided to get it AI.

The king of hearts is a mixed card. We now don't beat KQ anymore, and it's gonna be hard to get any value from 88-JJ. However, we now have 9 sure outs to the nuts.

What is villains range once he fires again on the turn? I'd say it is pretty strong. As I said I think he would have checked behind with the underpairs and the weak queens, so I am now putting him on AA/KK/QQ/44/77. Making the sets the most likely once given the small size of his bet. Seems like he is trying to massage the pot slowly here, setting up a river shove which will be giving us good odds. Thus, there are no hands in his range we beat. We are gonna have to hit the flush to beat him. Do we have the pot odds?

The pot is $24 after he fires, and it costs us $8 to call. That's 3 to 1, and we need 4 to 1 to call. However, villain isn't folding to a push on the river when the backdoor flush hits, not after having so little left in such a big pot. And we have just concluded that his range consists mostly of sets. If we call this bet we have $9 left in our stack (ugh), so we can add that to what we will win.

Thus the pot contains $32 after he fires, and it costs us $8 to call. We now have exactly 4 to 1, and we can call and shove the river if we hit. Check if we whiff, hoping to show down (after all he could have fired again with JJ. Or he could have AQ too and check behind. It's a marginal sitaution though, it could also be folded.

Here's the entire hand:

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $26.85
Hero (BB): $25.00
UTG: $23.15
CO: $36.30
BTN: $23.45

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
UTG folds, CO raises to $1.00, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.75

Flop: ($2.10) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7

4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero bets $2.00, CO raises to $7.00, Hero calls $5.00

Turn: ($16.10) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO bets $8.00, Hero raises all-in to $17.00

Any thoughts are aprreciated, so are questions from new posters. And If you disagree with my analysis somewhere (some of it might certainly be debateable), then that is what I am looking for the most.