Turned a boat... now what?

DrMega · #1 05-25-2007, 04:13 AM

Apologies for no card symbols for ease of reading... I forgot how to do that.

1/2 NL live.

Villain is pretty loose preflop (there is a LOT of limping in this game pf so it's to be expected) but has raised 0 hands (incl. AKo in mid-position, which he limped with and flopped broadway for stacks against top two) in about 1.5 hours (admittedly a small sample size).

He's a competent post-flop player who has made off-hand comments about implied odds, etc. which led me to beleive he's relatively skilled. He's shown down few hands so no solid data that way.

Effective stacks $300.

4 limpers, villain raises to $10 from the button. DrMega holds 10 10 in the small blind and opts to call. Two other limpers call.

Flop is AQ10 rainbow. Checks around to villain who bets $30. DrMega check-raises to $70. Fold, fold, villain calls.

Turn is another ace. DrMega bets $70. Villain calls.

River is a blank (offsuit 6 or 5). DrMega ???

shpanko · #2 05-25-2007, 04:19 AM

I lead that flop a lot tbh. You want to trap the other two players between you and there's no guarantee villain will bet. This is a tough situation because this guy seems passive preflop that his range has to be very narrow. I don't know what to do tbh. But I don't think I would fold at any point. I'd prob just bet/call AI on the turn because I can't this boat live

DrMega · #3 05-25-2007, 02:15 PM

Good point about the flop - I just assumed button would bet, which is no certainty.

Brad1970 · #4 05-25-2007, 03:10 PM

I'd bet again on the river. If my calculations are right, there's about 320ish in the pot, so say "All you can eat, baby!"

Hince · #5 05-25-2007, 03:13 PM

I shove the river.

DrMega · #6 05-25-2007, 03:49 PM

Given his pf passivity in the other AK hand I observed (granted he was oop in that one and on the button here), what range do we put him on that we beat and he calls a shove?

OTOH, can I really fold this?

Hince · #7 05-25-2007, 03:59 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Given his pf passivity in the other AK hand I observed (granted he was oop in that one and on the button here), what range do we put him on that we beat and he calls a shove?

OTOH, can I really fold this?

[/ QUOTE ]

People do a lot of dumb stuff in live games. He might have been trying to limp reraise the last AK hand. Also, he might just feel lucky with any ace in this hand and decide to raise. It's also possible he holds KK and can't let it go, the turn card might lead him to believe you are bluffing.

Anyway, the most important reason for shoving is that your hand is that your hand is too strong to fold. So, if you bet and he just calls, you probably win ~100% of the time. If you bet and he raises, you win less than 100% of the time. If you check, he checks any hand that would not call a bet and some hands that will call a river bet.

So... You can maximize your value 2 ways here either by maximizing your return when ahead, or folding when behind. And since you are never folding, you need to maximize your return when ahead.

Therefore, you should shove.