50NL: Really bad spot with deeeep stacks versus nitty

[Check_The_Nuts]

Villian is 18/15/5 over 350 hands. I've been 3betting him light some, I think he's noticed and he's starting to call slightly more. hand history didn't record so this is from memory. I think I was playing looser on this table, maybe 20/17/3. I could have been tight tho, like 17/12/3, its hard to say. Maybe even 14/12/3.

50NL
eff stacks ~$90

Preflop (Delt TT)
folds to villian, who opens 1.75, I repop in BB to ~6.50, he calls.

Flop 985 (Pot ~$13)
I bet $9, he calls.

Turn 7 (Pot ~$31)
checked through

River 6
bet fold, check call, bet call?, and how big

[Jack Bando]

IMO, $25-45.

The only hand that beats you is TJ (unless the board is flush poss) and it's somewhat possible he has this. If you think he's a bad player, he might fall for a large bet thinking you're playing the board.

[prodonkey]

I bet 15 and hope he calls for the chop.. you have 2 of the t's, he doesn't have JT.

[paddymcg21]

shove?? There's a straight on the board and you have the T for the higher straight. Plus there's a lot in the pot and this may seem a desperation shove to steal it. How often is he gonna have JT seriously! I say shove this, or am I missing something?

[Check_The_Nuts]

[ QUOTE ]
shove?? There's a straight on the board and you have the T for the higher straight. Plus there's a lot in the pot and this may seem a desperation shove to steal it. How often is he gonna have JT seriously! I say shove this, or am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

90 dollar stacks, decent player who would check the turn with marginal hands and draws. I don't know how often he bets an overpair on the turn. My range is probably wider than his but its hard to say.

I think I need to bet the turn as a bluff. River I bet $30, I think he gets scared and calls with his overpairs and probably doesn't raise w/o a flush. He almost never has a ten so I don't htink worrying about the split is a big deal.

Really sucks if he shoves a set, but IMO he doesn't check turn with a set ever.

I dunno, river makes my head spin still.

[prodonkey]

huh? it changes things if there is a flush possible.. why does it suck if he shoves a set.. you have the 2nd nuts? obviously your board is messed up if this isn't the case.

[Check_The_Nuts]

[ QUOTE ]
huh? it changes things if there is a flush possible.. why does it suck if he shoves a set.. you have the 2nd nuts? obviously your board is messed up if this isn't the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

obviously b.c. I'm bet/folding since I think he bets that turn with a set such a high % that he should have a flush here. You rather bet/call?

flush hit on the river.

EDIT: [censored] I screwed this post up. Yeah flush hit on the river too. Only reason its interesting. I obviously don' tbet fold if a flush wasn't possible.

Flop had two of one suit on it, it hit on the river.

I will probably repost this ina couple days for better responses :/. I hate screwing major details up like that in the OP.

[Angrymoog]

Do you he would call your cbet for a shot at a flush draw? I suppose its possible due to the deepness of stacks.

I think you should value bet the river for a half pot and vomit if youre raised.

[corsakh]

Dont know, I think spots where I have second nuts are great..

Anyway.. Bet half. I probably fold to a push.

[Lego05]

I think you need to put suits up since it seems like you're analyzing based on teh fact that a flush is possible and everyone else is based on the (incorrect) fact that no flush is possible.