WSOP Sat., QQ bubble question.

[VarlosZ]

Last Sunday's Pokerstars $650 WSOP satellite. 35 players get seats, 37 players are remaining. Blinds 1K/2K (about to go up to 1.5K/3K), I've got 17.7K remaining. There are 5 players with smaller stacks than me, but none are lower than 9K, and four have 12.5K+. Everyone is playing super-tight, of course, and maybe two people have busted out in the last half-hour.

I'm in 3rd position w/ QQ. The player on my right is the chip leader by far with about 180K. For the last couple of orbits he's been open-pushing about every other hand, and he does it again this time. If I call and win, I can (almost) definitely fold my way to a seat. If I fold, I'll probably have to steal the blinds at least once more.

Call or fold?

[Akeshish]

That is a tough one, i would probably wait, because the guy with 180k is gonna put the other short stacks in the same boat your in. if the guy has an ace or king he is 33 percent chance to beat your QQ. I would say you have 42 % chace of making it to the top 35 going allin here.

[Cornell Fiji]

I fold pretty quickly.

If the chipleader is pushing a lot then someone is bound to take a stand to him. Don't be that someone

[NoahL]

fold fold fold fold.

[VarlosZ]

Yeah, I folded pretty quick, but I'm mostly a cash game player, so I'm not used to bubble situations and wanted to make sure.

Interestingly, a few orbits later the same chip leader, who had been pushing all-in with increasing frequency at every opportunity, actually folded his SB when it was just him and me in the blinds and I was still one of the short stacks. I don't know why he was so nice to me, but it went a long way to ensuring that I got my seat.

[Cornell Fiji]

lol @ your disguised "I won a WSOP" brag post.

Congrats man, gl in the ME

[calbearsone]

I think its really important to have at least SOME fold equity with these super bubble confrontations...even if it means pushing with a less powerful hand. For this reason I would fold quick, and instead stick to stealing blinds from the medium/smaller stacks with holdings that do well against the range of hands they will call you with. Suited connectors, which tend to be live and ace-x, which keeps an important calling card busy and leaves atleast three outs, tend to do well in these spots. Especially if you need not steal too many times more, this strategy produces a much higher likelyhood of sucess than risking it all to win not yet the seat, but merely a better chance of winning the seat

[VarlosZ]

[ QUOTE ]
lol @ your disguised "I won a WSOP" brag post.

Congrats man, gl in the ME

[/ QUOTE ]

Heheh, really not my intent . . . well, mostly not. 80/20 legit question. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Actually, my father was watching me play at the time and disagreed with the fold, and since he paid the bills as a grinder while I was growing up, I had to give his opinion some weight.

And thanks.

[ QUOTE ]
I think its really important to have at least SOME fold equity with these super bubble confrontations...even if it means pushing with a less powerful hand. For this reason I would fold quick, and instead stick to stealing blinds from the medium/smaller stacks with holdings that do well against the range of hands they will call you with. Suited connectors, which tend to be live and ace-x, which keeps an important calling card busy and leaves atleast three outs, tend to do well in these spots. Especially if you need not steal too many times more, this strategy produces a much higher likelyhood of sucess than risking it all to win not yet the seat, but merely a better chance of winning the seat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like good advice.

[wpr101]

Looks like a fold. You can probably sneak in. But you may have to face a crucial showdown at some point.

Good luck actually registering for the tournament... it's pretty much impossible.