[NL200] Standard fold river with TPGK ?

[13_Xerxes]

Villain is 11/15/3 on 65 hands. So his limp/call is strange for me : I put him on small PP or maybe small connectors (like 45s), maybe AA...

The flop is dry : only a flush draw and he raised me small. The turn is bad for me, for him too if he got 222 or 777...
I don't know what can I beat after this turn. Is bet-fold standard here, or just go to SD cheaper ?

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $198.00
BB: $40.00
UTG: $210.00
MP: $129.15
<font color="black">Hero (CO): $220.30</font>
BTN: $212.00

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $2.00, MP folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $9.00</font>, 3 folds, UTG calls $7.00

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($21) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $12.00</font>, <font color="red">UTG raises to $30.00</font>, Hero calls $18.00

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($81) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero checks

<font color="black">River:</font> ($81) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">UTG bets $30.00</font>, <font color="red"> Hero ??? </font>

[Paul Thomson]

standard fold. I'd fold the flop a bunch too.

[13_Xerxes]

Fold this flop (I only C-Bet for half pot) is maybe soooo tight weak ?

[Brad1970]

You're getting odds to call, so I'd probably call this out of curiosity especially if he's somebody you normally play against. Granted there's not alot you can beat...but he was aggressive on the flop, then hit the brakes on the turn, &amp; gave you a good price on the river.

[The Vookster]

maybe bluff the turn on the flush card then be prepared to fold a raise or a bet on the river?

you can only beat a bluff on the river the way this was played in my (very) humble opinion.

Anybody else like the idea of firing 2/3 pot on the turn or is that crazy talk?

[13_Xerxes]

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's sure, the price is not expensive. After I call the flop, he knows I got or :
- TP with a good kicker (AQ/KQ/QJ/QT),
- A flush draw,
- A set.

After I check the turn, he knows I have a queen, so I will call a small bet. Looks like value town, no ?

[Brad1970]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're getting odds to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's sure, the price is not expensive. After I call the flop, he knows I got or :
- TP with a good kicker (AQ/KQ/QJ/QT),
- A flush draw,
- A set.

After I check the turn, he knows I have a queen, so I will call a small bet. Looks like value town, no ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Very possible, but IMO, you've stayed in the hand this far...I'd valutown you a little harder. Or, it's a half assed bluff.

[Grunch]

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting odds to call

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a fallacy.

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold this flop (I only C-Bet for half pot) is maybe soooo tight weak ?

[/ QUOTE ]

oh, my god he called me 'soooooo tight weak'... oh yeah, and what you point out, bet more on the flop and then fold to the check-raise.

[Brad1970]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're getting odds to call

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a fallacy.

[/ QUOTE ]

???

If my calculations are correct, he's getting over 3.5 to 1 to call. Most likely, he's beat but he does have decent odds if he elects to call.