25NL AJ hit trips, get out/happy?

[chanchuan]

Villain is 50/20ish over a very small smaple, but I didn't respect his pf raise much, he's been raising very often recently. However, after he calls my flop raise and leads the turn I start to wonder - what hands do that which I beat...

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.10/$0.25 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $28.60
BB: $42.95
UTG: $42.80
MP: $31.15
CO: $21.45
<font color="black">Hero (BTN): $25.00</font>

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">MP raises to $0.75</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.00</font>, 2 folds, MP calls $2.25

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($6.35) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP bets $2.50</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $7.00</font>, MP calls $4.50

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($20.35) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">MP bets $9.00</font>, Hero...

I don't put him on the flush here, however his weak flop bet might look like the fd, or just a cbet into a board he's scared of. What about my flop line? On the turn it seems like a marginal spot to me. I believe he could be doing that whit any ace, of which AK, AQ, A8 and A5 beat me (and 88 of course), or is it too much a liberal assumption? Thoughts?

[Quester]

I'd really like to see a bigger raise on the flop here. There's 8.85 in the pot when it's your turn to act. I'm putting in 9 here. If he calls I happily jam the turn. I think we see a worse A here often enough to be profitable. (Edit: I agree with your range analysis)

[chanchuan]

My point is: is it standard to shove the turn given villain's persistent flop and turn line? Assuming that we're not afraid of the flush we're slightly ahead of his 88,A2+ range, is this kind of analysis enough?

[Yaboosh]

I think discounting the possibility of a flush is a big mistake. I would say, by the looks of it, an Ace and a flush are about equally likely.

[ship_it_trebek]

I agree with Yaboosh....how can we discount the chance of a flush draw on the flop here? Your raise on the flop allows him to draw then he puts out a smallish bet on the turn. I agree...this can be a flush as often as an A in this situation.

[canavarr]

i'll try to keep the pot small, so call turn and call reasonable river if not hit your fullhouse.
if you are behind you are keeping the pot small and drawing to your fullhouse to stack him.
if you are ahead and he is drawing to a flush, he already priced himself about 2.2-to-1. we are not putting another penny if spade comes -except J of spades- so no implied odds. (and he has 8 outs to a flush, J of spades would be so sweet here)

[chanchuan]

Flush point taken, also, my 88, A2+ range is not so good either I believe, since he raised pf and called a 3-bet, so it could me more like A9+, which puts us behind. Which makes the turn a marginal call.