$11+1 FT, toughest bubble I ever played, KJ on the button.

[SayGN]

It has been 4-way for a long time and everyone at the table has been playing extremely well. This is a fold, right?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t500/t1000
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t1880
Hero: t1600
SB: t8340
BB: t1680

Sb posts t500
BB posts t1000

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">...Hero?

[Heavens_Myst]

lol @ 500/1000 blinds 4handed with those stack sizes, thats crazy. yeah i think fold, ur UTG next hand, LDO!

[SayGN]

I feel like the big stack is calling with a huge hand range here and if he isn't, then the BB certainly is and I'll lose that a certain % of the time, which forces me in when the blinds hit me (i could technically fold one more rotation and pray one of them goes out). Odds are that one of them is getting eliminated if I fold. If I do slide and win, i virtually garauntee myself 2nd place, but if that happens 50% of the time and the other 50% I bubble, then 3rd place is more profitable. As played, I slid and lost to SB's 99.

[holdem17]

I think you have to fold here. BB is probably calling a shove, if not he has 680 left. Which would mean he has 180 left if he does not complete against the other short stack. Big stack should also be pushing this hand so chances are someone is going out in 1 of the next 3 hands.

On the other side. If you push and win you will not be getting 2nd 50%. You have a decent chance of winning as well. This should also be factored in to the decision.

[RexWoo]

limp ?

If SB push and BB fold then fold too otherwise call.

[holy32]

[ QUOTE ]
limp ?

If SB push and BB fold then fold too otherwise call.

[/ QUOTE ]

cool idea, but folding must be better than this, no ?

[RexWoo]

Folding is better if you're sure that SB will push

[JadeRedstone]

I don't get it...
Which hands exactly are we waiting for to push with? Or are we just prying one of the other short stacks will make a move in the next orbit that will somehow magically land us in the money?

Seriously, I don't understand this ICM stuff here - can someone care to explain?

[holy32]

Jade, you should look through the FAQ or use the search function, or simply download an ICM prog and use the tutorial function. It's been explained quite a few times...

btw SB must push ATC, so KJo is def a fold.

[RexWoo]

Jade :
if we fold, the probable action behind is SB push, BB calls and we have basically 50% chances being in the money directly + a significant chance left otherwise as UTG will get hit by the blinds before we do. I'd say we will money 75-80% of the time at least IF SB IS PUSHING. A fold from him would be a disaster for us.

if we push, SB will call a very significant % of the time (50, 60, more ?)and only if he does not, BB will call 100% of the time. There are also overcall situation but obv. very few. I don't know how many time we will win but probably something in the 55%-65% range depending on who his the caller. The remaining 35-45% we are out. If we're not out, then 50-60 % of the time (when SB call), BB will still be alive (but yes, with less than 1BB).

Now, limping is probably a bad idea in the end as there are no ante and BB can pay SB + BB and still has 180 left. If we limp / fold, we will probably be the fisrt eliminated by the blinds. So a fold seems better, hopping for push from SB.