AJ: Flopped Top Two

[nickabourisk]

No reads/stats on anyone. Comments/criticism on all streets would be nice.

Pacific Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25/$0.5
6 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, SB calls, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, SB calls.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (0SB, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, SB calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (1.5BB, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, SB calls.

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4.5BB, 3 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises</font>, SB folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 caps</font>, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: 8.5BB

[ILOVEPOKER929]

Your 3bet on the river is clearly incorrect with no reads. When the villain raises the river he is telling you the queen helped him. There are alot more combinations of KT/T9 than QJ/Q8. You need to be greater than a 2-1 favorite to make this river raise/call profitable. Not only are you not a 2-1 favorite, youre probably an underdog in this situation, so next time dont 3bet, just make that crying river call cuz thats all you have here, a crying call.

EDIT: I just noticed that T9 hit the turn, so if we make the assumption that the villain wouldve raised the turn with T9 then we can eliminate that hand on the river or atleast discount it appropriately. You still cant 3bet the river however. If we put the villain on KT,QJ,Q8 youre still a 16-15 underdog so its still a crying call.

[nickabourisk]

Okay, thanks ILP. What odds would I need to make a raise on the end? In situations like this, do you not somehow weight hands in the range (e.g. {KT,QJ,Q8}) by how likely they are? KT has horrible odds to call here (so against an unknown, should it not be weighted less?). Also, if we assume that the unknown will chase a gutshot with KT, why wouldn't we assume that they would chase with QT, Q9, and QXcc. With these hands, some might raise on the end to fold out some better hands (weak aces, KK, Jx). One might argue that they can't fold these hands out, but if top two (AJ) has to make a crying call here, then calling with KK, Jx, and weak aces must be even worse calls. Also, I've seen some people do some weird "slowplaying" so we can't fully disregard other two pair like J8, J7, 78 can we?

[ILOVEPOKER929]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, thanks ILP. What odds would I need to make a raise on the end? In situations like this, do you not somehow weight hands in the range (e.g. {KT,QJ,Q8}) by how likely they are? KT has horrible odds to call here (so against an unknown, should it not be weighted less?). Also, if we assume that the unknown will chase a gutshot with KT, why wouldn't we assume that they would chase with QT, Q9, and QXcc. With these hands, some might raise on the end to fold out some better hands (weak aces, KK, Jx). One might argue that they can't fold these hands out, but if top two (AJ) has to make a crying call here, then calling with KK, Jx, and weak aces must be even worse calls. Also, I've seen some people do some weird "slowplaying" so we can't fully disregard other two pair like J8, J7, 78 can we?

[/ QUOTE ]

KT was double guttered on the turn so you cant discount it.

Since we have no read, I would assume the villain is not raising the river with a hand like QT,Q9 or any Qx one pair hand.

I agree that we cant fully discount a super slowplay with a hand like J8,J7,87,A8,A7. But that also means we cant fully discount T9 either. To keep the analysis simple I always assume that the illogical hands we beat roughly cross out the illogical hands that beat us. I realize this is not always accurate but thats the mental model I usually use when I'm playing the hand.

So once we see that we cant discount KT, and we make the assumption that the villain is not making a retarded raise with Qx, and we assume all illogical hands cross each other out were back to assuming the Q on the river helped the villain which means this hand range: KT,QJ,Q8,Qc7c. You are exactly neutral against this range so you cant 3bet since you need to be greater than a 2-1 favorite to turn a profit on this play.(I did not include Qc7c in my original analysis but it may be correct to discount this hand since so many players play their strong draws aggressively so you still may be an underdog on the river)

If a blank hit the turn and KT wasnt double guttered then whether you should 3bet the river or not depends solely on the likelihood that the villain will call the turn with just a gutshot.

In this scenario, if you discount KT by more than 50% you will have a profitable 3bet. Your judgement of your opponent will be the key to your success in this spot.

[nickabourisk]

Okay (I didn't notice that KT was double guttered) on the turn. I really appreciate the thorough analysis and clarity of your reply. Thanks again.