Ick AK vs major nutter

[cbloom]

No Limit Hold'em Ring Game (6 max) , 6 players
Blinds : $0.50/$1

Stacks:
UTG : $90.50
MP : $110.30
CO : $12.20
Button : $101.80
SB : $100
BB : $110.90 (Hero)

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP raises to $7</font>, 3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $16</font>, MP calls ($9).

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($32.50, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $21</font>, MP calls.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($74.50, 2 players)
Hero ????


Villain is like 75/15 , major nutter, likes to "outplay" people. Okay, so some info :

His oversize PFR is almost gauranteed a weak hand
He insta-called the flop which is some kind of tell, like he had decided to call any flop.

The question is : is it +EV to shove in spots like this?

[yid3655]

no, you have ace high and that flop is likely to provide him with some sort of pair/draw/combo that he can call you with (he is a nutter so he will call). I'm check folding this (unless he bets very small etc) even if he is a lunatic.

So many better spots to get your money in...

[Josem]

you're out of position, with Ace-high, against someone who is likely to have hit the flop (any Q, any J) and who isn't likely to fold to a repeat 2.

Like, it's not credible for you to have 2x, so if he called your flop bet, he's going to call your turn bet too.

[slickss]

Agreed, there is something to "never bluff a calling station".

[bilbo-san]

Well, tbh, he isn't folding T9, t8, K9, KT, or AT either if he's a nutter, guys. Cmon, it goes both ways.

I wouldn't be surprised if pushing here is +EV against his RANGE.

[yid3655]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, tbh, he isn't folding T9, t8, K9, KT, or AT either if he's a nutter, guys. Cmon, it goes both ways.

I wouldn't be surprised if pushing here is +EV against his RANGE.

[/ QUOTE ]

His stats are 75/15 so i'm assuming he is more likely limping T9/T8/K9 thus i didn't include them in his range

[delta k]

Make a bigger raise pf- even shove over him if you want.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well, tbh, he isn't folding T9, t8, K9, KT, or AT either if he's a nutter, guys. Cmon, it goes both ways.

I wouldn't be surprised if pushing here is +EV against his RANGE.

[/ QUOTE ]

His stats are 75/15 so i'm assuming he is more likely limping T9/T8/K9 thus i didn't include them in his range

[/ QUOTE ]

15% of hands is a huge range that includes a lot of this if they are suited. In addition, OP gave us a read that the big pre-flop raise == trashy hand. I chose to go with OP's read, as doing otherwise isn't very constructive.

[early325]

I make it $24 PF, and c/f the turn.

As long as he doesn't leave you'll have plenty of better spots to get your money in against him.

[Grunch]

Sounds like he decided preflop that he was going to float you on this hand, regardless of what came. I think you may actually have the best hand here...