BBvsSB @ final table of a major sunday tournament

[kutuz_off]

I showed no hands after various raises and reraises, and it's hard to say what my image is. I dont think I was either too tight or too loose. Villain hasn't done anything unusual either.

Seat 1: SB (963,021)
Seat 3: Hero (1,732,911)
Seat 4: UTG (560,492)
Seat 6: UTG+1 (950,948)
Seat 7: CO (1,331,968)
Seat 9: Button (346,660)
SB antes 3,000
Hero antes 3,000
UTG antes 3,000
UTG+1 antes 3,000
CO antes 3,000
Button antes 3,000
SB posts the small blind of 12,000
Hero posts the big blind of 24,000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
4 folds
SB calls 12,000
Hero raises to 72,000
SB calls 48,000
*** FLOP *** (T$162,000) [2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
SB checks
Hero bets 96,000
SB calls 96,000

OK, so far pretty standard I think. What is villain's range? Pretty much anything he'd limp-call with, right? What is our plan? On what turns if any are we firing second bullet?

[kutuz_off]

No interest? OK, here's the turn:

*** TURN *** (T$354,000)[2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]] [Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
SB checks

We turned a gutshot draw. Bet or take a free card? If bet, how much? Plan for the river?

[paddymcg21]

Id check and take the free card here, he could easily have the 8 and expect you to fire again. If he checks the river it's doubtful he has anything but id say unless you hit something you'll probably have to give it up. He must have something to call your flop bet. Basically id hope to hit the straight or maybe pair ur J or T, if not let it go.

[ItalianFX]

He could have a PP TT-QQ and is not ready to give up his hand fearing that you may have a better hand. Or he could have an 8 and try to get you to bet.

On the turn, check behind and get a free card and hope to hit a 9.

[paddymcg21]

I doubt he has a pair as big as TT otherwise he would surely have raised pre flop. It seems like a strange hand in general, the only hand I can realistically see villain having is something like A8, K8, Q8, J8, A2 etc. . . . of these K8 seems the most likely. Spike a 9 and his chips are yours.

[BarryLyndon]

Unless you are prepared to triple barrel, I would check here.

[betgo]

Check the turn. You have 10 outs to improve. If you bet, this is a good board for a checkraise bluff.

If you don't improve, you may want to bluff the river. You also could be ahead now.

[kurtkatt]

second barrel this obv, it just sucks to check behind here and see the river blank and be left with no options. All these diskussions about checking behind here with a semistrong hand cause villain will call a bet on river more easily applies here as betting the turn should fold out a lot of these weak made hands on turn here, no?

[Foucault]

[ QUOTE ]
second barrel this obv, it just sucks to check behind here and see the river blank and be left with no options. All these diskussions about checking behind here with a semistrong hand cause villain will call a bet on river more easily applies here as betting the turn should fold out a lot of these weak made hands on turn here, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Betting flop and turn will generally be interpreted as trips+ or air, and given that it's a blind on blind confrontation where the SB has repeatedly shown weakness, he's very likely to read it as a bluff and c/r or call down light. Check turn and bet river if checked to, whether or not you improve.

[BarryLyndon]

[ QUOTE ]
second barrel this obv, it just sucks to check behind here and see the river blank and be left with no options. All these diskussions about checking behind here with a semistrong hand cause villain will call a bet on river more easily applies here as betting the turn should fold out a lot of these weak made hands on turn here, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's assume your opponent doesn't have an 8:

When you bet the turn, your opponent may still consider a large percentage of your range to be a bluff. You're OOP and both of you are deep, so your opponent could C/R bluff you here, he could call with a smallish pair, an 8, A2, and so on. The only way to whittle your range down and get a fold (assuming a J, T, or 9 doesn't hit) is to fire away again on almost any river.

This is why I said "bet again ONLY if you plan to triple barrel." Which is why it should go: Check > bet, because with 10 potential outs, all of them with nice implied odds value, checking here has greater EV than betting. You also happen to keep the pot smaller, allowing you a less expensive bluff on an A river + a less expensive fold/call if you bet a J or 10 and your opponent CR on the river.