NL100 - Straight/Flush draw. How was my play?

[kosher]

I have been reading posts lately about getting aggressive with strong draws and in doing so getting some fold equity. Im not sure if I played this hand well and would love some feedback.

Also, If anyone can help me with mathematically analysing this hand it would be great. I struggle with the math side of things. Eg, Would i be getting the right odds if only the flop re-raiser and myself were invovled and u discount fold equity altogether??

Thanks. Much appreciated



Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.50/$1 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

<font color="black">Hero (SB): $79.00</font>
BB: $131.65
UTG: $58.40
UTG+1: $181.00
MP1: $100.00
MP2: $86.15
MP3: $96.00
CO: $92.10
BTN: $113.35

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (9 Players)
UTG calls $1.00, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls $1.00, MP2 calls $1.00, MP3 calls $1.00, CO calls $1.00, BTN folds, Hero calls $0.50, BB checks

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($7) K 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (7 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3.00</font>, BB folds, UTG calls $3.00, MP1 calls $3.00, <font color="red">MP2 raises to $22.00</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises all-in to $78.00</font>, UTG calls all-in for $54.40, MP1 calls $75.00, MP2 calls $56.00

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($298.40) T (4 Players - 2 All-In)
<font color="red">MP1 bets all-in for $21.00</font>, MP2 calls all-in for $7.15
Uncalled bet of $13.85 returned to MP1

<font color="black">River:</font> ($312.70) 7 (4 Players - 4 All-In)

Pot Size: $312.70 ($3 Rake)

MP1 had 5 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (three of a kind, Fives) and WON (+$223.55)
UTG had 9 K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (two pair, Kings and Nines) and LOST (-$58.40)
MP2 had 9 K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (two pair, Kings and Nines) and LOST (-$86.15)
Hero had 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a pair of Sevens) and LOST (-$79.00)

[mack848]

The problem here is that I don't see much fold equity at all. With this big a field, this raise is a set a lot of the time. The only other hands I can see doing this are AA, KK, AK or a flush draw (although I doubt AA, KK or Ak are overlimping preflop). All of these possible hands are calling your all in.

As for your equity.

If it were HU, you are getting about 1.25:1 pot odds when called. If we assume he never folds, you need about 44% equity - that is you need to win &gt;44% of the time vs. his range for it to be +EV.

Your hand vs. a range of 99 or 55 only has 35% equity
vs. 99, 55 and AK you have 40% equity.
vs AA, KK, AK, 99 &amp; 55 you have 41% equity.


I would recommend downloading Pokerstove and playing around with a few ranges when this sort of scenario comes up.

Mack

[Larude]

MP2 probably hasn't got a draw, he is getting huge odds to just call, by raising he is having a real chance of being shoved over if he was drawing. In this case MP2 has 70% of the time a set, so I don't like your shove, our FE is too small. He has to have a set here only 50% of the time to make this profitable (from a calculation).

[wallenborn]

That's about as ugly an opponent's hand distribution as it gets. Against normal hands you'd expect to have around 45%-50% equity, but here pokerstove says you're only at 38%. Your play is ok, since with four players in the hand you're getting plenty odds. But against the flop raiser alone you're still only at 39%, so if you knew their hands you actually wouldn't want FE here, you'd be rooting for the other two players to hang around, and you'd better flat call the flop. But you don't know their hands, so i think pushing is fine.

[diebitter]

yah, the pot size means you have virtually no fold equity. OTOH, the pot size and people likely to stick around makes the shove +EV, I think (I haven't run the stats, but it looks good by eye).

12 outs twice is about 50/50 to land the straight/flush.

[chicken10der]

Just a note - when calculating draw odds on the flop when you think you're up against a set: count your outs, multiply by 4, then subtract 10 (1 for each redraw the set has).

So in this case, you have 11 outs (8 non-K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]s, and 3 non-[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6s), so x4 is 44, minus 10 would be 34% equity.

[diebitter]

a set has 7 outs on the turn, 10 on the river.

I could be missing something important here though.

EDIT: if you account for redraws, you have 11 outs on the turn, 10 the river, no? Thats 42% or so.

Am I missing something?

[mack848]

[ QUOTE ]
12 outs twice is about 50/50 to land the straight/flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's worth memorising a few of the common equity estimates.

14 outs on the flop is 50/50 by the river, 12 outs is 45%

A 12 out draw is ~2:1 dog vs a set.

A 15 out str8 flush draw is still a ~60:40 dog vs. a set.

[mack848]

[ QUOTE ]
a set has 7 outs on the turn, 10 on the river.

I could be missing something important here though.

EDIT: if you account for redraws, you have 11 outs on the turn, 10 the river, no? Thats 42% or so.

Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pokerstove gives Hero 35% vs. 55 or 99 - the same as a 9 out draw

[diebitter]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
a set has 7 outs on the turn, 10 on the river.

I could be missing something important here though.

EDIT: if you account for redraws, you have 11 outs on the turn, 10 the river, no? Thats 42% or so.

Am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pokerstove gives Hero 35% vs. 55 or 99 - the same as a 9 out draw

[/ QUOTE ]

okay. Pokerstove is wise. I'm inspired to recheck all my mental calcs for outs etc against pokerstove, I need some realigning.