Math issue regarding bonus&arbs

[Limpfold]

So I ran into a little precarious situation I'm hoping someone skilled in math can help me out with.

Background and facts: I started with 6k at book A and 5.5k at book B (5000+500bonus). I need to bet a total of 16500 at book B to be able to withdraw the 500 bonus (3xrollover)

After placing 13 bets (arbs) average size ~475 I however had the 'unluck' of winning 9 bets at book B, 2 bets at book A and 2 bets pending. My balance at book A is now down to 2600 + 845 pending.
I have rolled over 6200 of the needed 16500.

Now my question is: What should my betsize be approximately to minimize the risk to bust at book A before 16500 is wagered at book B thus cancelling my bonus? For simplicity's sake say each bet has a 50/50 chance.

[recipro]

Uhh, this would simply be the smallest bet possible. If they let you bet one cent, that would certainly minimize the standard deviation of taking however many bets it would take (1,030,000 bets). Then, your standard deviation would be about $7. You'd be guaranteed not to bust.

Of course, this isn't feasible at all. But in general, the smaller you bet, the better.

[4Tay]

I don't have a math answer. But from my experience, I've had to reload on Book A about 3 times.

[Limpfold]

Well I guess I'll wait til tomorrow and find out how the 2 pending wagers affected it.

[bigalt]

don't you want a bust at one book? then you don't have to do the WR anymore...?

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
don't you want a bust at one book? then you don't have to do the WR anymore...?

[/ QUOTE ]

In general, yes. However, if his entire roll is in only these two books, busting would be disastrous.

[4Tay]

That's always the ideal outcome, but he's already mentioned that he's only satisfied less than 40% of the WR on Book B.

[Limpfold]

Well it wouldn't be disastrous, just 500 bucks down the drain.

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
Well it wouldn't be disastrous, just 500 bucks down the drain.

[/ QUOTE ]

- Some books won't let you cashout with the bonus removed.

- If you happen to bust to the bonus book and have less than $10,500 left of the WR, it is higher EV to bet -110 lines at random (if you don't want much variance, just bet $20 on every MLB spread and total for a couple of weeks) than to cashout and have the bonus removed.

[Limpfold]

So you think my best approach should be to just fire the same bets until I eventually bust at book A then fulfill the rest of the rollover with the 'beteverything' strategy?

Wish I'd took some statistics classes when I went to university grr.
I have no idea how to calculate the EV between that method and start arbing 150-200 to prolong bustoism at book A.