equity calculations

[wtf5]

Hey this may seem like a simple problem but im not sure exactly on this equity calc.

Basically im trying to calc the equity of shoving when button raises, SB reraises and i shove from the BB.

I have each of Buttons and SBs hand ranges, how often they call, how often they fold and the equity of my hand vs their calling range.

Say the pot is 850 when they call, 400 of which is mine. When im calcing my equity vs one player calling:

Winning equity = Prob of him calling x equity x pot

but what is the pot? When calculating the equity of winning the allin, it seems logical to use 850 because the 400 which was mine no longer belongs to me.

When i calculate the equity of losing it seems to me that i should only be using the 400 that i put in because i dont 'lose' whole pot from my BR. Is this correct?

Thanks for your feedback.

[AaronBrown]

I'm a bit confused. I think you're saying that you've put in $400, either the button or the SB has also put in $400 and there is $50 from a player who folded (either the button or SB).

In that case, your pot equity is $850 x p, where p is your probability of winning. There's no such things as "equity of winning" or "equity of losing"; just equity. Chance of calling doesn't matter here. If p > $400/$850, then your pot equity is larger than what you paid, so on average you'll make money net by the time the hand is over. If p < $400/$850, then on average you'll lose.

If we back up to the situation before you push, it's different. I don't know the blinds, say they are $5/$10 and then Button raises to $30, SB to $50. There's $90 in the pot, and you're considering putting in $390. If you do, five things can happen. Both other players can fold, you make $90. One or two players call, and you lose, you lose $390. One player calls and you win, you make $430 (if SB calls) or $450 (if button calls). Two players call and you win, you make $800. Your EV is the sum of these five amounts times the probability of each one occurring.

Notice in this case, I'm treating the $10 BB as already in the pot, it's profit if you win it, it's not a loss if you lose it. But the $390 you are considering betting is still yours. It's not profit to get it back, it is a loss if you lose it.

Assuming that if you don't push you'll fold, then you should push if the EV is greater than zero. If it's less than $10, you still figure to lose money net on the hand on average, due to the $10 BB, but that money's already spent. Folding won't get it back.

If you might call or make a smaller raise if you don't push, you should compute the EV of those strategies and do whatever gives you the most EV.

[wtf5]

im sorry if my post wasn't clear. The model is basically seeing what our equity is vs a button and blind raise war. I assign each person a hand range and a calling range and see if a shove with air is profitable.

When i said "equity of winning" i meant, as you point out above, our expectation in the event the button calls which is:

P probability he calls x probability of winning (pokerstove calc) x the size of the pot

then i would calculate the expectation doing the calc when we lose vs the button

P probability he calls x probability of losing x 'pot'

in the first case when we win, i should use the total pot in calculation but in 2nd case i was wondering if its right to use the money we shove over (400 - BB = 396)and not the 950 pot size.

I hope that makes things clearer...

Thanks for your feedback