Small value bet turn into bluff inducer?

[Colombo]

At the time, villain was like 20/15/infinite over 100+ hands. There's a really good chance hes 2p2 and is a thinking player. I really hate my play on this hand overall. On the river, I put him on a hand like 88, 99-QQ. I figured I'd make a weak value bet. Comments on all streets appreciated


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) internettexasholdem.com

CO ($174.50)
Button ($193.60)
SB ($151.20)
Hero ($206)
UTG ($184.70)
MP ($220.05)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $8</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, SB calls $7, Hero calls $6.

Flop: ($24) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP bets $16</font>, SB folds, Hero calls $16.

Turn: ($56) K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP checks.

River: ($56) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $20</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP raises to $196.05</font>, Hero calls $162 (All-In).

Final Pot: $434.05


My thoughts on this call were:
A) My bet is weak and he could easily be bluffing over it.
B) We don't have any history between eachother, and I don't see a good player ever checking a set behind on the turn here when my hand is fairly well defined as a draw

[wpr101]

I would rather reraise or fold preflop. River actually seems okay to me. I might pussy out though.

At first I thought this was the hand I played versus you where I had KhJh and tried to bluff you on 393 board when you had 99; for stacks, lol.

[Colombo]

[ QUOTE ]
I would rather reraise or fold preflop. River actually seems okay to me. I might pussy out though.

At first I thought this was the hand I played versus you where I had KhJh and tried to bluff you on 393 board when you had 99; for stacks, lol.

[/ QUOTE ]

You think squeezing there is a good play? I've been cutting down on my 3bets from the blinds (especially from MP raisers) simply because I've just been spewing on a ton of flops, and people have been owning me by not 4betting their strong hands.

[tannenj]

86s and 64s are possible, you know.

[Colombo]

[ QUOTE ]
86s and 64s are possible, you know.

[/ QUOTE ]

86s I think is possible but 64s is somewhat unlikely, just given his stats and pf action.

In my opinion though, the same reason a bluff here looks so good to him is the same reason why he should not be pushing 86s. I'd assume he'd feel there was more value in a raise to like $60 as opposed to shoving.

[the machine]

id c/c river here. 68 got there and hearts missed. get value out of a missed flush and minimize losses against worse hands.


also you wont be put in a tough spot

[tannenj]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
86s and 64s are possible, you know.

[/ QUOTE ]

86s I think is possible but 64s is somewhat unlikely, just given his stats and pf action.

In my opinion though, the same reason a bluff here looks so good to him is the same reason why he should not be pushing 86s. I'd assume he'd feel there was more value in a raise to like $60 as opposed to shoving.

[/ QUOTE ]

fair point i guess. along the same lines, he can have 55 too.

[ASC-what]

[ QUOTE ]
I would rather reraise or fold preflop. River actually seems okay to me. I might pussy out though.

At first I thought this was the hand I played versus you where I had KhJh and tried to bluff you on 393 board when you had 99; for stacks, lol.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't understand why everybody wants to 3bet preflop with these kinds of hands. you don't always have to 3bet or fold preflop from the blinds. imo you become very exploitable very quickly. idk, this might just be a minirant, but honestly, is it really necessary to 3bet so liberally preflop?

[Dory]

[ QUOTE ]
86s and 64s are possible, you know.

[/ QUOTE ]

As is 55 I guess.

The turn is a pretty good double barrel card for him, but he checks it through. I would also expect him to bet the turn with AK and KQ.

But the river push doesn't look like a one pair hand. With your initial read and adding 86, 64 and 55, I think it's a very gutsy call.

We need to be right close to 40% here to breakeven, which feels like a lot.

[Rolon]

I think you look so much like you have a missed flush draw that you have to call and thinking that he has 99-QQ. I'd be very curious for the results of the hand because with that information, I'd bet he has 99-QQ.