fold KK to a 2/3 stack? discipline 101

[ipokeder]

villain is sleepy80. stats are 18/13, nitty mcnitterson. no idea why he has less than full, usually doesn't.

POKERSTARS GAME #123456789: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($3/$6) - 2007/05/15 - 05:51:04 (ET)
Table 'Jutta' 6-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Instacalled ($505 in chips)
Seat 2: mr.jupiter ($447 in chips)
Seat 3: KKBigDawwg69 ($1028.30 in chips)
Seat 4: zanderfish ($1026.85 in chips)
Seat 5: ipokeder ($1006.30 in chips)
Seat 6: Sleepy80 ($428 in chips)
Sleepy80: posts small blind $3
Instacalled: posts big blind $6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ipokeder [Kd Kh]
mr.jupiter: calls $6
KKBigDawwg69: folds
zanderfish: raises $12 to $18
ipokeder: raises $60 to $78
Sleepy80: calls $75
Instacalled: folds
mr.jupiter: folds
zanderfish: calls $60
*** FLOP *** [Qh 6s 9d]
Sleepy80: checks
zanderfish: checks
ipokeder: bets $102
Sleepy80: raises $248 to $350 and is all-in
zanderfish: folds
ipokeder:

basically it boils down to i know he has to have AA/QQ but maybe maybe he has JJ or AQ? probably not but can i really fold KK to a 2/3 stack getting these odds? we could be splitting too so wtf? i mean i made the small flop bet to fold to a push from sleepy80 and i know i beat nothing and he's a huge nit so wtf should i talk myself into calling or just fold it

sincerely, me

[fitnessfreak]

i think that his range is AA-TT and AQ (i have seen people cold AQ like this many times before). add to that the fact that you bet so weak on the flop and i think its a call.

[fringsrache]

if a nit overcalls a 3bet, that usually means trouble. but i also dont know if i could get away from it ( its so cheeeaaapppp). if hes decent he knows he cant play 88-JJ just for setvalue or ak for hitvalue so i guess he has to have a big pair here.the queen is certainly a bad card for u... i guess u should let it go.

[TylerD]

[ QUOTE ]
i think that his range is AA-TT and AQ (i have seen people cold AQ like this many times before). add to that the fact that you bet so weak on the flop and i think its a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

That may be his range before the flop, but if he is nitty mcnittyson then surely that range shrinks to AA-QQ after the flop action.

[Trivial]

well Sleepy is definitely a huge nit and i'd be really surprised if he showed up with AQ in this spot which is realistically about all we beat. i think this would be an excellent spot to fold (maybe just cause i HATE paying off nits), but theres always the possibility that you both have the same hand, or he's decided to go with JJ to the felt despite the overcard... for $250 more i'm tempted to shove it in for these reasons but i definitely don't disagree with letting it go.

[Tulosba]

Folding is right here i think, only thing you can hope for here is a chop more or less.

[soah]

It's interesting to me that everyone has him as a nit. I have him at 20/18/9.5 (329 hands) and he five-bet shoved QQ against me for 117bb with no history.

I'd certainly expect to be behind here more often than not, but calling can't too terrible when we're getting such good odds and have 2 nut outs with 2 cards to come. There's some non-zero chance of him showing up here with JJ or something and that chance doesn't have to be very big to turn this into a close call.

[snugglez88]

sleepy overcalls pre, and we know he's not doing it with a drawing hand because 1. he's a nit and 2. he's not full stacked. He dumps AQ here pf... His calling range preflop is likely AK/JJ+. How much of that range does he checkraise you with on the flop?
Fold

[hoppscot22]

meh, i probably dont fold here. never played against him though.

its like 248 to win almost 700. he probably has QQ.

actually the more i write here the more i want to fold.

but the pot is so big and we have an overpair!

[wpr101]

I think you have to call this.