NL200 - 89o - River Decision..

pterodactyl_ · #1 05-17-2007, 12:37 AM

Bodog No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (8 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Hero ($197.00)
UTG ($70.80)
UTG+1 ($161.23)
MP1 ($275.94)
MP2 ($198.00)
CO ($474.00)
Button ($224.50)
SB ($217.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $2, 2 folds, CO calls $2, 2 folds, Hero checks.

Flop: ($7) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, CO bets $4.5, Hero raises to $14, UTG+1 folds, CO calls $9.50,

Turn: ($35) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $29, CO calls $29.

River: ($93) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $55, CO raises to $162, Hero??

Villain was 40/8 over 100ish hands. Thoughts?

coordi · #2 05-17-2007, 01:25 AM

im not familiar with bodog but it looks like he has a hand such as 10 8 or a similar straight. Worst case you get knocked by 67 or 710 but most likely its a similar straight. Unraised pre I don't see how you can fold this because of the extremely high number of hand combos he could have. but I dont like calling.

Ron Burgundy · #3 05-17-2007, 01:27 AM

I'd rather lead the flop. I don't want to risk giving a free card. It's just a fact that whenever you flop the nut straight, the turn and/or river either pair the board, put a flush out, or kill your action and make you want to kick things.

I really like a check/call on this river. People on Bodog suck and bet whatever when you check. Betting just allows them to play correctly here because I don't think a worse hand will call, and better hands sure as hell won't fold.

paulcouto · #4 05-17-2007, 02:52 AM

call.

its an ev call. call and hope.

Larude · #5 05-17-2007, 05:40 AM

Would someone with two pair on the flop play like this? That would be pretty passive. So i think we can exclude 67 or T7 (low %); but what is his AF? With 89 you wouldn't expect the action on the river, because you could have filled up a boat. Inside straights like 97 or 87 or 99 would be very opportunistic, but if he puts you on a good hand he might figure out that he has enough IMO. I think sets would also have played this faster because of the straight possibilities (besides a player with that preflopraise aggregate would have raised TT). So what do we have to make of it in the end? I guess he will have 97 and 87, 20% of the time; a boat 30% of the time, 15% for other things and 35% of the time he has T9 and decided that river was a nice opportunity to bluff at. If you look at it the hand most likely played like this is T9 (apart from relative complete air which he decides to bluff you with). It looks so weird; calling or folding, for both a good case can be made. If you had some sort of a read that he is capable of bluffing rivers like this i would call.

diebitter · #6 05-17-2007, 06:27 AM

He's playing that like a lag plays a set on the flop. I bet he hated that turn and loved that river.

Any comments about his postflop play up to this point? If he rarely got involved postflop in big pots (ie he's a good Lag), you are clearly not ahead here.

Larude · #7 05-17-2007, 07:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
He's playing that like a lag plays a set on the flop. I bet he hated that turn and loved that river.

Any comments about his postflop play up to this point? If he rarely got involved postflop in big pots (ie he's a good Lag), you are clearly not ahead here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do lags play a set like that on that flop in a multiway pot? I mean hero could easily have a combodraw and if he has two pair he will probably come along when reraised. Would you mind to take it away with a set on that board?

diebitter · #8 05-17-2007, 07:13 AM

If I told you that I'd have to kill you.

non-lethal answer: to get the most from tags in the session (not necessarily in the hand).

Larude · #9 05-17-2007, 07:16 AM

You're not saying you are the CO in this situation are you [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

Thrahl · #10 05-17-2007, 07:27 AM

I think its a fold. At best your chopping unless villain is dumb enough to play a bare 7 like this. Don't know if I make this lay down in real time though, especially with Villains stats.