AA, facing big turn raise and river push

[Bork]

Villain's 3rd hand at the table I figured he was likely bluffing/semi-bluffing or just stupidly overplaying something I beat. I thought for a long time on the river to come to this conclusion. Thoughts?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

SB ($9.30)
BB ($26)
UTG ($26)
MP ($38.80)
Hero ($40.30)
Button ($25.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $0.75</font>, Button calls $0.75, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($1.85) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1.25</font>, Button calls $1.25.

Turn: ($4.35) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $2.75</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $7</font>, Hero calls $4.25.

River: ($18.35) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $16.5 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls $16.50.

Final Pot: $51.35

[avfletch]

I'm betting more pretty much everywhere. As played you don't know if his turn bet is strong or attacking your weakness.

I think putting him on a semi-bluff is a pretty long shot. Hardly anyone is semi-bluffing on the turn at these stakes.

[MJBuddy]

Raise more Pre-flop, I like the flop, I'd rather a larger raise on the turn, but regarding the river, I think you're calling.

Reasoning: I think he's on a flush draw on the turn. He probably puts you on a hugely missed flop because it's a weak flop, he floats your CBet and when he gets a draw, tries to push you off of it. When it misses, it's also a scare card that he knows you don't have a part of, because you would have come over the top to his reraise on the turn.

I expect to see either AJ, busted flush, or QQ+ here if he puts you on the Jack.

[Bork]

So is 3x too small of a standard open? I always thought it was more of a matter of preference. Am I giving up $ opening for 3 rather than 4.

Also good analysis, I think. He had A5d for the the gutshot and turned flush draw. I guess he was trying to represent a flopped set, but given the board and action I felt like it was a tough sell.

[SMACK BOOTY]

[ QUOTE ]
So is 3x too small of a standard open? I always thought it was more of a matter of preference. Am I giving up $ opening for 3 rather than 4.

[/ QUOTE ]

What I'm finding is the lower the stakes, the bigger the BB multiple you must raise to 1) minimize callers 2) force callers to define their hands. You only got 1 caller which is good ( I only want 2 max w/my big PP's, but that is a personal preference).
At these levels, its too tempting for fish to call 3 BB with nothing. The theorists will say this is a good thing, and from a Sklansky money standpoint they are correct, but from a practical "what did this idiot call me with " standpoint, it makes more difficult. I admit I'm more sensitive to this than most because I lead the league in getting my big PP's cracked with trash.

[MJBuddy]

I've had 4-bets called with 8/3 off-suit from the big blind HU.

It's scary sometimes.