set over set, can I get away?

[antisocialgrace]

Assuming there is no obvious flush or str8 draw?

I ask because I've gotten stacked set over set 4 times in 3k hands, which I think is pretty ridiculous. I don't know if I should be counting this as a leak or some insane variance. All 4 hands both players flopped sets.

I would post the hands but some jerkoffs in here would flame the thread since it's on the micros.

I'm not a math genius, does anyone know the precise odds of set/set in a FR game?

Thanks.

[Niediam]

I dont think I have ever folded a set because I believe my opponent had a bigger set.

[sparky3474]

Only beaten set over set once in 3000 hands

[Barfunkel]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming there is no obvious flush or str8 draw?

I ask because I've gotten stacked set over set 4 times in 3k hands, which I think is pretty ridiculous. I don't know if I should be counting this as a leak or some insane variance. All 4 hands both players flopped sets.

I would post the hands but some jerkoffs in here would flame the thread since it's on the micros.

I'm not a math genius, does anyone know the precise odds of set/set in a FR game?

Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just variance. You basically never ever fold a flopped set on the flop unless you have the bottom set in a 456s type of flop and 3 full stacks are already all in before you and even then calling is not bad. To fold under usual circumstances you need a really good read and a hand that's played in a way that really screams out set and even then you probably should call.

Here's an NL50 hand I played recently where I was basically sure I was behind but still called.

Full ring NL50. A tight and not agressive opponent raises 2$ from UTG. 2 callers, I call from the big blind with a pair of fives. Flop is 5JQ rainbow. I check, UTG checks, one of the callers bets 1,50, I raise to 7 or so, UTG goes all in. I couldn't think of a hand other than JJ or QQ that particular player would play that way but I still called, even though my senses told me I was beat and I should fold. That was actually the first and only time I ever thought going all in with a set on the flop was a mistake, after hundreds of thousands of hands.

[JackSevenSuited]

if both players start with a pair set over set will happen roughly 1 in 100 times. Against those odds im willing to risk going broke, unless of course I have tons of chips and an incredible read. All in all, if your playing pocket pairs in hopes of hitting a set, then hitting and folding that is a leak in itself.

[jordiepop]

ill never fold a set because i think someone has a better one. even on a AK3 flop ak will go broke just as much as aa or kk. i think i could lay down kk preflop before i could fold a set on a non str8/flush board. and i dont fold kk pre flop

[antisocialgrace]

[ QUOTE ]
Only beaten set over set once in 3000 hands

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm getting absolutely murdered then, #5 came not long after my post. never seen anything like it.

[antisocialgrace]

[ QUOTE ]
ill never fold a set because i think someone has a better one. even on a AK3 flop ak will go broke just as much as aa or kk. i think i could lay down kk preflop before i could fold a set on a non str8/flush board. and i dont fold kk pre flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh I wouldn't either, but these are situations where I'm losing hands like 44 to 77. I'm starting to wonder if I shouldn't just be laying down the low PP. This has absolutely killed my hourly over the last 24 hours. I've been stuck at break-even for 3k hands--my normal ptbb/100 is 14.5 multi-tabling the micros.

[DerFleisch]

[ QUOTE ]
set over set, can I get away?

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
no obvious flush or str8 draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

There are only two scenarios where you don't stack off here:

1. You don't have the cojones to play winning poker.
2. You're playing limit, with no unlimited raises HU.

[antisocialgrace]

[ QUOTE ]
if both players start with a pair set over set will happen roughly 1 in 100 times. Against those odds im willing to risk going broke, unless of course I have tons of chips and an incredible read. All in all, if your playing pocket pairs in hopes of hitting a set, then hitting and folding that is a leak in itself.

[/ QUOTE ]

Offhand I don't know the odds of two or more players holding PP in a FR game, but I think you would x that by 100 then. Thanks. And I agree with your assessment.