Fun river decision (MATH)

[EgoSlasher]

He's ~30/20 500 hands

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $2/$4 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $431.00
BB: $687.30
UTG: $204.70
MP: $156.40
<font color="black">Hero (CO): $542.30</font>
BTN: $427.40

<font color="black">Preflop:</font> Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $12.00</font>, MP folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $38.00</font>, 2 folds, BB calls $34.00, UTG folds

<font color="black">Flop:</font> ($90) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $60.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $125.00</font>, Hero calls $65.00

<font color="black">Turn:</font> ($340) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

<font color="black">River:</font> ($340) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $200.00</font>

Pot Size: $540.00


Hero had A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and LOST (-$163.00)

I have 177 left after his bet. What ranges do you assign here? Which combos do you discount and why?

Who pushes and who calls?

[AragornX151]

Does this feel like QQ to anyone else?

[AragornX151]

The line sure feels like QQ is a possibility, though it's a poorly played QQ from the turn on. I guess JJ is distinctly possible as well.

[RepulseMonkey]

bet/fold turn ?

[Geir74]

Why are people talking about folding?

I would have tried to get the money in on the turn.

As played, river is close.
The river T is not the best card for you. I'm tempted to push, but I might just call.

[jpsnow]

Call, but push is close because he basically has to call w/ QQ on that river, but I guess the decision there would be whether he has QQ or JJ more often given his action. I probably call and think its pretty close to 50/50 between these 2 hands

[RiverHebrew2]

You're getting 2.5:1 odds... his range is TT-KK, and AA chops. OK so, you beat half his range and lose to the other half. Uh... tough time folding this; I don't push but I do call here all day getting 2.5:1 to call and I'm beating half his range IMO (and chopping with aces once in a blue moon)..

[jsnipes28]

am i crazy? i woulda gotten more money in earlier but as is i would shove river.

[Reef]

[ QUOTE ]
Why are people talking about folding?

[/ QUOTE ]

[Jeffmet3]

Doesn't the check min-raise scare people?

I'd just call river